Analysis: ETH/BTC continues to weaken, breaking below key moving averages, analysts warn of potential 40% further downside

Odaily reported that over the past year, ETH/BTC has fallen over 35%, with the market structure continuing to weaken, raising concerns about further downside risks. Analysis indicates that ETH/BTC remains suppressed by a multi-year descending trendline that has repeatedly capped rebounds since 2022 and was accompanied by nearly a 70% correction during the 2024–2025 market cycle.

Currently, ETH/BTC was rejected in August 2025 after rallying to the confluence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month moving average, and has since broken below support at the 20-month moving average, indicating persistent selling pressure. Technical models suggest that if weakness continues, the next key support level could be around 0.0176 BTC, representing roughly 40% downside from current levels and approaching the cycle low area of 2020.

On-chain data shows that ETH reserves on Binance have continued to rise, increasing to approximately 3.62 million ETH by May, accounting for about 24.6% of exchange holdings across all platforms, indicating increased potential selling pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin exchange reserves have continued to decline, reflecting tighter BTC liquidity and stronger holding sentiment.

Analysts believe this divergence reinforces the market pattern of ETH's relative weakness. Meanwhile, at the narrative level, the "ultra-sound money" narrative has cooled, while Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional allocation and corporate treasury demand, putting ETH under pressure from both capital flows and market narratives. (Cointelegraph)