分析：比特币反弹未确认牛市开启，链上结构仍缺乏底部信号
Odaily Planet Daily News: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after dropping from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend is still a "post-decline correction" and has not yet confirmed the start of a new bull market cycle.
He pointed out that, based on on-chain data, several key indicators have not yet entered the range corresponding to historical bear market bottoms. This includes indicators like "Supply in Loss" and the 90-day UTXO metric, which have not yet shown a full cyclical bottom structure. Additionally, the "LTH Realized Supply" has not exhibited a typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of bear markets, suggesting the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.
Furthermore, spot selling pressure indicators have also not shown significant "capitulation selling," implying that a typical comprehensive market purge has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that until on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure improve synchronously, the current rally is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
On a macro level, he noted that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, leading to renewed inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices have weakened, indicating pressure on the demand side. Simultaneously, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising in tandem, further suppressing risk asset valuations.
He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is approaching a potential transition period. However, the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes, with market expectations clearly shifting towards "higher for longer" interest rates. In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.
Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he remains cautious about the market outlook.
