Analysis: If the U.S. labor force participation rate remains at 2024 levels, the unemployment rate could reach 5.3%

Odaily Planet Daily News Financial website investinglive commented on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report: The U.S. labor force participation rate continued to decline in April, falling to 61.8%. If this data were to remain at 2024 levels, the U.S. unemployment rate would be 5.3%, rather than 4.3%.

Market analyst Ye Xie stated that the labor market has stabilized recently since the end of last year, entering a state of "low layoffs, low hiring." Today's employment report has not changed this assessment.

Jordan Rochester, Head of EMEA Fixed Income, FX, and Commodities Strategy at Mizuho Bank, wrote that overall employment figures were better than expected, but wage growth was weaker, and the trend of slowing employment growth over the past three months has not changed. The unemployment rate remained unchanged again, making it difficult for the market to believe that the labor market has slowed enough to support the logic of interest rate cuts this year. Aside from ruling out the more dovish scenarios some analysts previously emphasized, this data is insufficient to drive significant market movement in either direction. (Jin Shi)