QCP: BTC rebound driven by risk relief, market remains range-bound

Odaily Odaily reported that QCP released a market analysis stating that BTC has rebounded from a low of around $75,000 to $78,000. This rally is primarily driven by risk relief rather than a restoration of market confidence.

It pointed out that the extension of the Iran ceasefire reduces short-term geopolitical risks, while the Federal Reserve maintains a data-dependent stance without releasing clear easing signals. Futures open interest has recovered, yet funding rates remain negative, indicating the participation of new short positions in the market. In terms of options, short-term implied volatility is around 40%, with the skew still favoring downside protection. The term structure is only slightly upward-sloping, overall pointing to a range-bound trading scenario.

QCP believes that subsequent market trends will still depend on crude oil prices and monetary policy signals. In the absence of clear catalysts, the market may maintain a wait-and-see posture.