Analysis: Bitcoin Strengthens Alongside US Stocks, but Options Market Still Bets on Downside Risks

Odaily According to reports, Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during Asian trading hours, gaining approximately 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% over the week. However, the derivatives market is sending different signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital noted that this rally is primarily driven by spot buying, not a broad recovery in risk appetite. The current funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that short sellers are still increasing their hedges rather than being forced to cover their positions.

The options market also leans towards caution: short-term implied volatility is low, with the one-month tenor lower than the three-month. Furthermore, risk reversal indicators show that market demand for downside protection exceeds that for upside bets, suggesting traders are more willing to pay for potential declines than to chase gains. QCP believes this looks more like a "rebound" than a trend reversal.

On the macro front, long-term US Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite. Gold remains near its highs, indicating persistent safe-haven demand. Institutions point out that the current market movement is more of a "sentiment repair" driven by ceasefire expectations, rather than a resolution of core risks.

Additionally, Ethereum has shown relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering to around 0.0315. Coupled with on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, this suggests signs of capital rotation into higher-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this rally. (CoinDesk)