"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: US-Iran War Could Trigger 15% Oil Supply Gap, Far Exceeding Historical Levels, Oil Prices Face Upward Pressure

Odaily 讯 "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on platform X, stating that historically there has been a clear correlation between oil supply gaps and price increases: in 1973, an approximately 7% supply gap drove oil prices up by about 300%; in 1979, an approximately 5% gap drove an increase of about 150%; and in 1990, an approximately 6% gap drove an increase of about 130%. The potential supply shock scale currently surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is about 15%, significantly higher than historical cases. Most institutional models currently assume the shock duration is only "a few days to a few weeks," but few models anticipate the shock could last for months. In reality, once the market consensus on duration is broken, more long funds may be forced to enter the market, further pushing up oil prices.