Analysis: This cycle exhibits characteristics of a "reverse altcoin season," with structural weakness and intensified divergence

According to a lengthy analysis posted by analyst Ali on platform X, this cycle may have already exhibited a "reverse altcoin season" different from the traditional pattern. Historically, altcoin seasons typically manifest as capital rotation flowing into altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, driving a broad-based rally. However, the current cycle shows more characteristics of structural weakness and intensified divergence among altcoins. Reviewing the cycle's trajectory shows that Bitcoin bottomed around $15,000 following the FTX incident in November 2022, subsequently initiating a bull market and reaching a high near $126,000 around October 2025. Yet, during this period, the market did not experience a typical, widespread altcoin rally phase. Most altcoins exhibited features such as breaking long-term trend channels, losing key support levels, and expanding downside volatility. In this environment, market opportunities are more concentrated in structural divergence and two-way trading, rather than one-sided upward movements. From a market structure perspective, the current phase resembles more of a selective deleveraging and valuation normalization stage for altcoin assets, rather than a traditional, comprehensive altcoin bull market. In the short term, the market may continue its divergent pattern, with structural downside risks not yet fully released.