Original - Odaily

Author - Nan Zhi

Yesterday, BTC fell by 5675 USDT,The decline reached 8.39%,The biggest single-day drop since the FTX crash on November 9, 2022(14.15%). Similarly, the market experienced a comprehensive decline, with ETH falling 10.28% yesterday, BNB falling 8.59%, and SOL falling 13.3%. The market is still fluctuating slightly today, with no obvious signs of rebound.

CoinGecko data shows that the total market value of cryptocurrency fell to 2.43 trillion, a 24 H drop of 4.4%.AlternativeThe data shows that crypto users’ trading enthusiasm has dropped significantly compared with yesterday. Today’s Panic and Greed Index is 74, graded as “greedy”, while yesterday’s and last week’s Greed Index were 79 and 81 respectively, both graded as “extremely greedy”.

In terms of derivatives trading,CoinglassData shows that the entire network liquidated $654 million in the past 24 hours, of which long orders liquidated $487 million and short orders liquidated $167 million; BTC liquidated $229 million and ETH liquidated $157 million.

Why did it fall? Or because ETFs start to outflow

According to Farside Investors monitoring，Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of US$326.2 million yesterday, while the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced an outflow of $154 million on March 18, the continued inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF failed to continue. The main changes areBlackRock IBIT inflows weakenYesterday, IBIT had a net inflow of US$75.2 million, which was only 8.8% of the highest point of 849 million on March 12. However, the magnitude of GBTC outflow did not change significantly, so the overall net outflow began. The chart below shows recent changes in ETF fund flows.

Trader and economist Alex Kruger said that BTC’s recent price decline was catalyzed by several factors, which in order of importance are:

• Market leverage is too high;

• Ethereum drives the market downward (the market believes that the possibility of its spot ETF passing is low);

• Bitcoin ETF inflows are negative;

• Meme mania on Solana.

Two weeks ago, JPMorgan Chase also warned of the need to pay attention to the risks from ETFs hitting the investment capacity line. Its analysis team issued a statement saying: Bitcoin already has a larger allocation in investor portfolios than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.”(Reference article: JPMorgan Chase: Comparing gold investment data, Bitcoin is about to peak》）

What do you think of the market outlook?

10x Research: BTC falls below $60,000, bargain hunting

Yesterday, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x ResearchPost a message to express，Bitcoin price may fall below $60,000 before rebounding. The report explains why he turned bearish more than 10 days ago and further stated,It’s too early to buy on the dips. A key bearish point is that retail trading sentiment is cooling, which is reflected in the significant decline in trading volume of altcoins and meme coins. In addition, the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows for two consecutive days. Technically, Markus Thielen still believes Bitcoin will trade below $60,000 before embarking on a more meaningful rebound attempt. Based on previous new high signals,It believes BTC is expected to rebound to $83,000 and $102,000, but is currently more focused on managing downside risks。

HashKey: Adjusted crypto market returns outperform other assets

HashKey Exchange on X platformPost a message to express, although the price of Bitcoin fell 13% from $73,000 to $63,000, the market needs to remain calm and investors need to pay attention:

• Cryptocurrency markets are relatively volatile, meaning their prices may move up and down;

• Despite the fluctuations,But crypto risk-adjusted returns still outperform other asset classes；

• For long-term holders, volatility will level off.

Ethereum spot ETF expected to be approved in May

Bloomberg ETF analyst James SeyffartPost a message to express, the chances of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May have become increasingly slim. He said: “My cautious optimism about Ethereum spot ETFs has changed in recent months. We now believe that these applications will ultimately be rejected in the May 23rd round.The U.S. SEC has not yet communicated with issuers on specific matters regarding Ethereum. The exact opposite of what happened with Bitcoin spot ETFs last fall。”

Currently, there are 7 issuers hoping to launch Ethereum spot ETFs, namely BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale, VanEck, ARK 21 Share and Hashdex. Two weeks ago, the U.S. SEC postponed its decision on Hashdex and ARK 21 Shares Ethereum spot ETF applications and extended the deadlines to May 30 and May 24 respectively.

The big one is coming?

Deribit Asia Pacific Business Leader Lin Chen on the X platformPost a message to express, ETHs IV implied volatility has risen to over 80, currently 81.8, indicating that the market believes that a storm is coming. Lin Chen further stated: “This is not to say that it will continue to fall. In fact, the price has already oversold.… The market is very panicked. As a trader, this is a time when it is actually suitable to sell bearish and short futures for hedging; to make Vega and Theta money.

(Odaily note: The Vega indicator of an option measures the sensitivity of the option price to changes in IV. When the event becomes uncertain and larger, Vega rises. Selling Put is equivalent to earning Vega; earning Theta refers to taking advantage of the decay of the time value of the option. to make a profit.)

in conclusion

With the Bitcoin halving approaching, market volatility is becoming more intense. At the same time, the cessation of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs shows that the pallet power from the United States will no longer be as effective as before in the short term. Although the market has fallen to lows, investors still need to pay attention to the amount of leverage to avoid the risk of a flash crash to $60,000 or even lower.