The market sentiment remains greedy due to the high volume and high pressure.

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-12-23 02:13

This article is about 8707 words, reading the full article takes about 13 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 51st week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 51st week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 51st week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: heavy volume surges, pressure and callback, market sentiment remains greedy
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 65.43%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 28.84%
USDT premium rate: the premium rate fluctuates widely, and maintains a positive premium at the end of the day
USDT premium rate: the premium rate fluctuates widely, and maintains a positive premium at the end of the day
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Futures contracts: heavy volume and upward fluctuations within a narrow range, the market continues to be bullish in the long run
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: high volume and high pressure callback, market sentiment remains greedy

As of the statistical time of the report (December 22, 2020), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$613.143 billion, an increase of 11.89% from the average value of last week; The weekly average rose 32.61%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 12.32%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 10.73%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 10.20%.

This week, the market saw a surge in heavy volume and retreated, maintaining a high level of volatility as a whole, the market trading activity was on the rise, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market started from around US$560 billion and entered a fast upward channel, breaking through the US$600 billion and US$650 billion barriers one after another, reaching a peak of US$671.5 billion. Afterwards, it was at a high level for 4 days, and the overall market value basically remained above US$640 billion. Consolidation, closing at around 630 billion US dollars, the daily average value of the total market value increased by 11.89% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week. The Fed’s interest rate meeting basically met market expectations, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%. At least $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, and gold rose more than 2.3% for three consecutive weeks.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 65.43%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 0.302% to 41.309718 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 16.42% to 12.415083 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 0.6899% to 5891.3653 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 160845VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 36.2276 million yuan.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 28.84%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 370.46%, an increase of 82.92% and 28.84% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 81.92%, the lowest was 31.80%, and the extreme value difference was 50.12 percentage points. Among them, BCH ranked first, with a cumulative turnover rate of 450.45% this week, an increase of 84.26% from last week.

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are LTC (777.81% this week, up 264.02% or 51.39% from last week), ETC (700.23% this week, up 83.74% or 13.58% from last week) , EOS (590.78% this week, up 70.99% or 13.66% from last week); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (68.53% this week, up 12.42% from last week, or 22.14%), ADA (114.06% this week, down 12.45% from last week, down 9.84%), XLM (137.85% this week, up 17.88% from last week, up 14.90%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.498%, total USDT circulation increased by 2.35%

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 11 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated widely, with a rise of 4.6% in late trading compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 2.10, the highest value was 6.94, the lowest value was 2.02, and the closing value was 3.59; the fear & greed index was 90 points 7 days ago, the highest this week The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 92 points, which is a slight increase from 90 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin continued to rise after breaking through 20,000 points, the market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: heavy volume and upward fluctuations within a narrow range, the market continues to be bullish in the long run

From the perspective of futures contracts, the market volume can continue to expand this week, contracts with different durations maintain premiums, and the market continues to be bullish in the long run. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was 166 million US dollars, an increase of 29% from the previous week; at the same time, the Chicago Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that it will launch Ethereum futures on February 8, 2021. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.43%, and the premium has decreased by 0.10 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts is 0.92%, and the premium has increased by 0.14 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 4.66%, and the premium has increased 1.39 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.19%, and the premium dropped by 4.74 percentage points. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.38%, the latest premium of the next week's contract is 0.88%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract (delivered in March of the following year) is 4.74%. The volatility of the forward contract basis has weakened this week. (The sharp increase in the premium of the contract in the current quarter is due to the change of statistical data from the contract delivered on December 27 to the contract delivered in March of the following year), and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. Futures investors are advised to pay attention Risks Strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 17 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market has surged and fell after heavy volume, and the overall level remains high and volatile. Market trading activity is on the rise, and investor sentiment remains extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market started from around US$560 billion and entered a fast upward channel, breaking through the US$600 billion and US$650 billion barriers one after another, reaching a peak of US$671.5 billion. Afterwards, it was at a high level for 4 days, and the overall market value basically remained above US$640 billion. Consolidation, closing at around 630 billion US dollars, the daily average value of the total market value increased by 11.89% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week. The Fed’s interest rate meeting basically met market expectations, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%. At least $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, and gold rose more than 2.3% for three consecutive weeks.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 65.43%. The total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 2.53438 billion yuan, an increase of 1002.392 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 65.43%. From the perspective of transaction volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of transaction volume are Binance (39.17%), Huobi (29.73%), OKEX (21.50%), the trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 90.40% of the total trading volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges decreased by 0.03% compared with last week; Binance this week The cumulative trading volume increased by 370.523 billion yuan, an increase of 59.56%, compared with last week. The cumulative trading volume of Huobi this week increased by 312.363 billion yuan, an increase of 70.81%. It was 69.17%.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 28.84%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 370.46%, an increase of 82.92% and 28.84% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 81.92%, the lowest was 31.80%, and the extreme value difference was 50.12 percentage points. Among them, BCH ranked first, with a cumulative turnover rate of 450.45% this week, an increase of 84.26% from last week.

Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.498%, and total USDT circulation increased by 2.35%. This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2.0760 million BTC; the USDT balance on the exchange was 8.7905 billion USDT, an increase of 3.498% over the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 19.834 billion USD It was up 2.35% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated in a wide range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The USDT premium rate fluctuated widely this week, and remained at parity in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.11% this week, with a maximum premium of 5.00%, a minimum premium of -0.19%, and a closing premium of 0.09%; as the market continued to rise , The USDT premium rate has recently fluctuated more and maintained a positive premium range as a whole.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy. This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated widely, with a rise of 4.6% in late trading compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 2.10, the highest value was 6.94, the lowest value was 2.02, and the closing value was 3.59; the fear & greed index was 90 points 7 days ago, the highest this week The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 92 points, which is a slight increase from 90 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin continued to rise after breaking through 20,000 points, the market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: The market volume can continue to expand this week, contracts with different durations maintain premiums, and the market continues to be bullish in the long run. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was 166 million US dollars, an increase of 29% from the previous week; at the same time, the Chicago Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that it will launch Ethereum futures on February 8, 2021. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.43%, and the premium has decreased by 0.10 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts is 0.92%, and the premium has increased by 0.14 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 4.66%, and the premium has increased 1.39 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.19%, and the premium dropped by 4.74 percentage points. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.38%, the latest premium of the next week's contract is 0.88%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract (delivered in March of the following year) is 4.74%. The volatility of the forward contract basis has weakened this week. (The sharp increase in the contract premium in the current quarter is due to the change of statistical data from the contract delivered on December 27 to the contract delivered in March of the following year), and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. Futures investors are advised to pay attention Risks Strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

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