QCP: Bitcoin volatility is declining, and without a clear catalyst, it is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range

Odaily News QCP said in a statement that an unexpected rise in job openings boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 approaching the psychologically important 6,000 mark ahead of the release of key non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Stable non-farm payrolls will reinforce the Fed's narrative on labor market resilience and strengthen market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.

On the trade front, markets remain on the sidelines, awaiting the expected Xi-Trump talks. Bitcoin (BTC) short-term volatility has declined, with spot prices holding near the familiar $105,000 level; 1-month implied volatility has fallen below 40 volatility. In interest rate markets, Chinese 10-year and 30-year bond futures volumes fell to their lowest levels since February, reflecting a broader risk aversion and wait-and-see stance.

Bitcoin continues to range-bound, with light positioning and normalized skewness suggesting a lack of clear directional conviction in the market. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the mid- to far-end, reflecting a similar downward trend to the VIX index and prompting some investors to take opportunistic long volatility trades. Notably, the $130,000 call option expiring in September traded at 47 volatility, showing partial market interest in the upside ahead of the third quarter. Looking ahead, the third quarter may be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may begin to permeate macro data, while fiscal risks around the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) and the debt ceiling may trigger potential headline volatility. In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range.