Odaily News QCP Capital said in a post today that last Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data brought some respite to the stock market and cryptocurrency market, further reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut in May. Bitcoin remained around $86,000 for most of Saturday, seemingly setting the stage for a steady recovery this week. However, the momentum was interrupted by the Bybit hack during a period of low liquidity on Sunday, when hackers cashed out at least $300 million from a record $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing BTC and ETH to test key support levels again. Since hackers have shown a willingness to cash out rather than risk further losses (the stolen assets have depreciated by 25%), holders may sell in advance to avoid supply pressure from further selling by hackers, which could exacerbate today's price decline.
Risk reversal demand for put options has increased further over the past 24 hours, reflecting heightened market concerns about additional selling pressure. While $80,000 remains a key near-term support level for BTC, upside also appears limited as the narrative of strategic Bitcoin reserves has been fully priced in by the market. Recent options flows suggest that a more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter. Until the cryptocurrency market finds a new narrative, BTC's correlation with the stock market may strengthen further in the short term. Currently, both risk assets are trading near recent lows, and with tariff risks still present, market volatility may rise ahead of the release of key US macro data - the Consumer Price Index (CPI, Wednesday) and the Producer Price Index (PPI, Thursday).