BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Multiple Bearish Factors Converge, Crypto Market Suffers Worst Weekly Drop Since FTX, Macro and On-Chain Panoramic Review

1. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Stronger-Than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls Send Shockwaves: Rate Cut Hopes Reversed, Hiking Priced In

The biggest macro variable this week was the U.S. May Nonfarm Payrolls report. The economy added 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. This robust data significantly cooled expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, with the market starting to reprice the risk of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs also pushed back its rate cut forecast to 2027. Following the data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, hitting a two-week high. The Nasdaq plunged 4.2% in a single day, with tech and semiconductor stocks under significant pressure. Broadcom tumbled over 12% in a single day after its AI revenue guidance fell short of expectations, dragging down other stocks like Micron, Arm, and AMD, signaling that valuation pressure from the crowded AI trade is being released.

1.2 Geopolitics & Energy: Signs of Progress in Iran Talks, but Middle East Risks Remain

Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered their "final critical stage," with discussions on a ceasefire related to the Strait of Hormuz continuing. This temporarily eased market concerns about extreme risks in the Middle East, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and joint U.S.-Israel military actions are reinforcing regional uncertainty. Combined with the Eurozone's May inflation rising to 3.2%, energy prices are further strengthening market fears of "re-inflation" and limiting the Fed's future scope for rate cuts. Copper prices continued to rise amid approaching tariff reviews, with both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup raising their year-end price targets.

1.3 Key Window for the Fed: Warsh's First FOMC Imminent, This Week's CPI Becomes Global Focus

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 17. While maintaining rates unchanged in June remains the market's base case, the pricing logic has shifted from "when will they cut rates" to "will they hike rates again." The U.S. May CPI report, due this Wednesday, will be the most critical data point ahead of the June FOMC meeting. If inflation surprises to the upside, Treasury yields could rise further, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a significant drop in CPI could alleviate market concerns about "re-inflation."

Meanwhile, SpaceX's planned IPO on June 12, with a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion, along with the liquidity absorption effect of other large IPOs like Anthropic's, could continue to dampen risk asset resilience. Additionally, the Japanese yen is approaching the 160 mark. If the Bank of Japan delivers a surprise rate hike on June 16, the unwinding of carry trades could create additional shocks for tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

2.1 Market Overview: BTC Crashes ~17% Weekly, Posting Largest Weekly Drop Since FTX Collapse

The crypto market experienced its most severe weekly decline this week since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC fell from around $72,700 at the beginning of June to a low of $61,100 on June 5, a weekly drop of roughly 17%–20%. ETH fell approximately 22% in tandem, currently trading around $1,682, down about 66% from its all-time high.

The total cryptocurrency market cap dropped from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, with approximately $390 billion wiped out in one week. Weekly leverage liquidations totaled about $7 billion, with longs accounting for roughly $5.7 billion. A single day liquidation event on June 5 saw $1.146 billion in forced closures, affecting over 240,000 traders. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 9, entering the "extreme fear" zone. The core pressures driving this sell-off stem from a confluence of factors: declining risk appetite in U.S. stocks, surging Treasury yields, persistent ETF outflows, and the concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions.

2.2 Persistent ETF Net Outflows, Systemic Institutional De-Risking

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $325 million this week, bringing the cumulative total net inflow to approximately $53.94 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows standing at about $11.2 billion. ETF outflows, combined with professional investors reducing their BTC exposure and continued selling by some institutions, are subjecting the crypto market to systemic de-risking pressures.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) paused its ATM share issuance program for buying Bitcoin, opting instead to prioritize repurchasing approximately $1.5 billion in convertible bonds. As a significant marginal buyer of BTC over the past two years, this slowdown in its purchasing activity implies a weakening of short-term market support. Overall, the ongoing boom in AI infrastructure investment is still draining liquidity from the crypto market. The "suction effect" of mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic continues to be a core headwind preventing Crypto from mounting an independent rally.

2.3 On-Chain Data: Whales Buying the Dip Alongside High Liquidation Risk

On-chain signals were clearly divergent this week. On one hand, some large entities began buying the dip. An Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563. One whale accumulated 93,330 ETH for approximately 152 million USDT. Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to his Maker vault, bringing his total staked ETH to 110,000 to avoid liquidation risks.

On the other hand, liquidation risks are not yet resolved. Three major whale addresses holding a combined 345,000 ETH (worth approximately $537 million) still face liquidation threats, with liquidation prices estimated in the $1,241–$1,472 range. The total stablecoin market cap fell to $310 billion, a weekly decline of about 1.89%, indicating generally weak on-chain purchasing power. Currently, BTC is testing support around its 200-week moving average, roughly at $61,821. This is the first time the price has touched this critical level since 2023. Whether it can hold the support near $60,000 will be a key variable determining the short-term market direction.

2.4 Industry Narrative: Accelerated Derivatives Compliance, Institutional Infrastructure Buildout Quickens

The industry narrative this week continued to center on "institutional-grade infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." CME launched Nasdaq Crypto Index futures on June 8, covering assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. On the same day, Coinbase launched four perpetual stock index futures (AI Top 10, China Top 10, Defense Top 10, Tech Top 100) under the CFTC regulatory framework.

Ondo Finance's Ondo Perps went live on June 9, attempting to expand perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equity assets like stocks. Meanwhile, quantitative firms like DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are accelerating the formation of prediction market teams, laying out cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp sell-off hasn't weakened the institutionalization trend; instead, it has reinforced the "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure" narrative. The crypto market is gradually transitioning from being driven by retail sentiment to being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management measures before trading.