Analysis: Bitcoin May Remain Range-Bound Between $81,300 and $84,400 Ahead of Fed Decision

Odaily Seolpa Ilbo — Bitfinex stated in a post that despite repeatedly facing downward pressure, Bitcoin has continued to hold the lower end of its range, and is expected to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on October 28. If the price tests the upper end of the range, profit-taking by short-term traders could generate some selling pressure.

In terms of market data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, indicating somewhat strengthened spot demand, but BTC's price is still fluctuating narrowly between $81,724 and $83,470, and currently remains below the average cost basis of ETF investors at $84,333. Meanwhile, open interest in futures on major exchanges has rebounded 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, and funding rates are normalizing, indicating some recovery in leveraged long positions.

In the options market, notional open interest for options expiring on October 23 stands at $1.23 billion, with the max pain point at approximately $82,000; monthly options expiring on October 30 total $11.2 billion, with a max pain point of $76,000. On-chain data shows that approximately 145,000 BTC was added at the $82,224 cost basis, while approximately 62,000 BTC was removed from the $80,353 cost basis, indicating that some holdings are migrating toward higher cost ranges. The SOPR for short-term holders is approximately 1.003, and the share of profitable supply is approximately 70%.