"Fed's Mouthpiece": The July rate-setting meeting is shaping up to be one of the hardest to predict in recent years

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote on July 23 local time that the Fed's July policy meeting is expected to be one of the most difficult to predict in recent years. The renewed rise in oil prices, escalating risks from U.S. tariff policies, and a shift by some officials toward supporting a rate hike are challenging the consensus to keep interest rates unchanged.

The market generally expects the Fed to maintain its policy rate at the July 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), keeping the current rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the outcome of the meeting does not signify the end of internal debate, as some officials have already begun paving the way for further rate hikes later this year.

In previous meetings, the Fed's 18 officials were clearly divided on whether a rate hike was needed this year, with half expecting one and the other half seeing no need for adjustment. Jonathan Pingle, Chief U.S. Economist at UBS, stated that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could be the key figure in determining the direction of policy.