Goldman Sachs: If the Strait of Hormuz Disruption Persists, Brent Crude Could Rise Above $120 in Q4

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Goldman Sachs released a report stating that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Brent crude oil prices could rise above $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter. However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that this is not its baseline forecast scenario. The report states: "The escalation of the situation in the Middle East, combined with estimates that flows through the Persian Gulf have fallen to less than 45% of pre-war levels, has driven the rebound in oil prices."

According to Goldman Sachs' current baseline assumption, which anticipates a de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East, Brent crude is forecast at $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 per barrel next year. Nevertheless, analysts pointed out that given the potential for shipping disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, the risks to the oil price forecast are "tilted to the upside." (Jinshi)