Standard Chartered Maintains Bitcoin Target of $100,000: Strategy Selling Coins Is Not a Sign of Risk Deterioration

Odaily Planet Daily News Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price forecast for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, believing that the recent market decline triggered by Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) related movements is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a strategic adjustment that the market has failed to fully understand.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted in a report that Strategy's recent actions are disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market previously accepted the narrative that the company would "never sell Bitcoin," but now Strategy appears to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.

Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, representing approximately over 4% of Bitcoin's total supply of 21 million coins. From 2020 to mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (Enterprise Value / Bitcoin Asset Value) was consistently above 1, allowing the company to raise funds by issuing stocks to purchase Bitcoin and achieve shareholder value growth. The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" was central to gaining market acceptance for this model. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is diminishing.

Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," using its Bitcoin holdings as the credit foundation for its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. Currently, STRC is the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with a scale of approximately $10 billion. It offers an annualized dividend rate of 12%, paid semi-monthly in cash, and maintains its price near the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism.

Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading around $90, while Strategy's US dollar reserve for paying dividends is about $2.55 billion, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend payments.

Kendrick remarked that Strategy's policy adjustment allowing Bitcoin sales does not necessarily mean the company will continuously sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not need to sell Bitcoin at all. He compared this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "act no matter what": with just the restoration of market confidence, actual intervention may never occur. (The Block)