Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more characteristic of a relief rally than the start of a new bull market

Odaily Planet Daily News Wintermute released a market analysis stating that weak U.S. employment data and dovish remarks from Fed official Waller have driven a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum recently outperforming major U.S. stock indices. Specifically, Bitcoin's rise is primarily fueled by continued accumulation by whales, increasing bullish sentiment in the options market, improvements in on-chain data, and better spot ETF fund flows; Ethereum's gains are more supported by institutional adoption and expectations for the development of tokenization infrastructure.

However, Wintermute believes that this rally is more characteristic of a "relief rally" rather than the start of a new long-term bull market. Although an improving macroeconomic environment and continued institutional positioning have boosted market sentiment, the net cumulative outflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs this year still stands at approximately $2.73 billion. Until ETF fund flows show a sustained improvement trend, the current market movement should still be viewed as sentiment repair rather than a structural reversal.