Analyst: Bitcoin May Be Entering a Bottoming Range, 200-Week Moving Average Becomes Key Macro Divergence Point

Odaily Planet Daily News Analyst Ai points out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cyclical bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by the start of a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:

August 2015: Touched the 200-week moving average before starting a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%

December 2018: Rebounded approximately 267% after testing the moving average

March 2020: Confirmed support after hitting bottom due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a 1,125% increase

June 2022: First fell below and remained below the moving average for an extended period until reclaiming it in December, subsequently starting an approximately 680% rally

In the current market, the 200-week moving average is around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is operating below $60,000. Analysts believe this has entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.

At the same time, analysts also warn that potential downside risks still exist. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, a test of the $40,000 range could occur. However, overall, it is more suitable to adopt a gradual dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy for building positions.

In terms of key observation points, $63,500 is considered the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can re-establish a foothold on higher timeframes and confirm the 200-week moving average as macro support, historical patterns suggest it could signal the early stages of a new bull market have already begun.