Fed's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold Rebounds, Bitcoin's Key Range at $64,000-$65,000

Odaily Planet Daily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark, briefly dropping about 4% from its high during the session.

This meeting marked the fourth consecutive time the Fed has held rates steady, but the latest dot plot shows a significant shift toward a hawkish policy path: multiple officials expect a possible rate hike this year, further weakening market pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has more influence than the rate itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market data shows that after the announcement, Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400, then quickly reversed downward under heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870, with a notable increase in trading volume, indicating active selling-driven pressure. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inflow of bottom-fishing capital yet.

In stark contrast is the performance of gold. Spot gold briefly dipped to around $4,220 before quickly rebounding, reclaiming the $4,300 level and stabilizing near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand has remained resilient.

Market participants point out that the core divergence in this reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold quickly recovered from the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key $64,000 level, indicating that risk assets are more sensitive to "higher-for-longer" interest rates.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase where "loose expectations support risk assets" to one where "the hawkish path suppresses valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume and stabilize; otherwise, it may continue a weak consolidation pattern.