Economists: US-Iran Agreement Lowers Recession Risk but Does Not Change Outlook

Odaily Planet Daily News Report: Ben May and Bridget Payne of Oxford Economics stated in a report that although there may be future setbacks, the US-Iran agreement reduces the risk of a sustained decline in oil inventories, ultimately triggering a surge in global energy prices and leading to a recession. However, they noted that this does not automatically mean oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will increase faster than previously anticipated. "Our baseline assumption was that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume by the end of July."

"Nevertheless, our current short-term oil price forecasts still appear too high." They added that because the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to help lower inflation but has a limited boost to economic growth, this news further reinforces their view that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will not raise interest rates, and other central banks that have already completed their rate hikes will not do so again. (Jinshi)