World Cup Drives Record High Predictive Market Trading Volume, Bernstein Says Robinhood Could Benefit

Odaily Planet Daily News Bernstein stated that as predictive market trading volume hits a record high during the World Cup, Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind."

Data shows that daily trading volume in FIFA World Cup predictive markets rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high and exceeding the $1.4 billion in trading volume seen during the previous Super Bowl.

Analysts pointed out that since its launch, the predictive market has become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue product lines. The institution expects Robinhood's predictive market revenue to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 286%. This is projected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.

Bernstein believes that Robinhood's collaboration with Rothera, an exchange and clearing agency regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is one of its competitive advantages. Since going live on May 28, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts within 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core advantage lies in its distribution capabilities, with strategies such as its large user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and discounts of up to 50% on fees for Gold members helping to drive user participation.

Additionally, Bernstein stated that competition in the predictive market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching contracts on private company events and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The institution predicts that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to predictive markets and increase overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)