Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin May Have Entered Bottom Range, High Probability Bottom Between $46,000–$54,000

Odaily News, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on the X platform to analyze the recent price trend of Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin's current price is around $62,000, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline over the past month. The price has already broken through the upper range of his pricing framework and entered the valuation cluster zone where historical cycle bottoms have occurred.

Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance; potential bottom signals can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven line for median holders for the first time since December 2022, and is currently within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. The high-probability bottom range at this stage could be between $46,000 and $54,000, with $35,000–$40,000 below this range representing a rare "sell-off tail." It is important to note that cycle correction amplitudes are gradually decreasing: previous cycle lows saw declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this cycle has declined only about 50%. This suggests that the high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.