Analysis: ETH bearish pattern points to $1,600, BitMine's unrealized loss may exceed $10 billion

As Ethereum continues to weaken, the unrealized loss on Tom Lee's BitMine ETH reserves has expanded to approximately $7.35 billion. Data shows that ETH has fallen over 57% from its high of around $4,955 in October 2025, and its market dominance (ETH Dominance) has also slipped from about 15% to roughly 10%.

BitMine initiated its ETH reserve strategy in July 2025, continuously increasing its position after completing a $250 million private placement. The latest data indicates it currently holds approximately 5.28 million ETH, accounting for about 4.37% of the total Ethereum supply, making it the world's largest publicly listed ETH reserve company.

Despite the expanding unrealized loss, Tom Lee remains committed to a long-term accumulation strategy. BitMine has stated it will moderately slow its purchasing pace but will not abandon its ETH reserve plan, and expects to hold 5% of the total Ethereum supply by December of this year.

Nevertheless, technical risks are intensifying. Analysis indicates that ETH is currently near the lower boundary of a typical bearish "rising wedge" pattern. If support is effectively broken, the price could further decline towards the $1,600 area, representing a potential drop of about 25% from current levels. If this scenario occurs, based on BitMine's average holding cost of approximately $3,513, its unrealized loss on ETH holdings could further expand to around $10.1 billion.

Meanwhile, market sentiment continues to deteriorate. On-chain data platform Santiment shows that the ratio of bullish to bearish comments on ETH social media has rapidly declined from over 2:1 at the end of April to nearly 1:1. Analysts state that an increasing number of traders are beginning to view ETH as "Dead Money" (an asset lacking upward momentum). (Cointelegraph)