Analysis: Bitcoin rebound does not confirm the start of a bull market, on-chain structure still lacks bottom signals

Odaily Planet Daily News: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from approximately $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend is still a "post-decline recovery" and has not yet confirmed entry into a new bull market cycle.

He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, several key indicators have not yet entered the range corresponding to historical bear market bottoms. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related indicators, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Additionally, the "LTH Realized Supply" has not exhibited the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, suggesting the market has not entered a deep redistribution phase.

Furthermore, the spot selling pressure indicator has not shown any significant "capitulation selling," meaning a typical widespread market clearance has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr. believes that until the on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure improve in tandem, the current price increase is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.

On a macro level, he noted that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures. Consumer confidence and financial health indexes are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Simultaneously, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising in tandem, further suppressing valuations of risk assets.

He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is approaching a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even started to incorporate the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher rates for longer." In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.

Axel Adler Jr. stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer signals of an on-chain bottom structure and a recovery in demand. Until then, he remains cautious about the market outlook.