Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance Level, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Fuel Market Caution

On Thursday, Bitcoin traded around $76,000, consolidating after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts point out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.

Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more concerned about policy uncertainty stemming from the "division" within the Federal Reserve than the decision to hold rates steady itself. This is especially true given the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of a potential succession by Kevin Warsh, creating a lack of clear transition in the policy path.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000-$79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000. Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve has shown unusually significant internal disagreement, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation trajectory. Analyses from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares indicate that expectations of "higher interest rates for longer" are suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.

Regarding fund flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million leaving on April 29 alone. Ethereum ETFs saw concurrent outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still saw capital inflows, the overall trend suggests cooling institutional demand.

Meanwhile, while CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there are no signs of a strong capital return yet. Derivatives markets show short positions in perpetual contracts at an all-time high. While an improvement in sentiment could trigger a squeeze, the current market structure is primarily characterized by low volatility and low conviction, remaining in a consolidation phase.

Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between improving support structures and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppress its ability to break through key resistance levels. (The Block)