Huobi Experts Lecture | HTX Research Chief Analyst Andy: Deconstructing Q3 Crypto Market Investment Logic

On July 20, Andy Liu, Head of HTX Research and Chief Analyst, joined the fifth episode of the HTX Expert Lecture series. With the theme "2026 Q3 Outlook: A New Order in the Crypto Market Under Global Liquidity Repricing," he delivered an in-depth analysis covering global liquidity repricing, structural shifts in the crypto market, trends in core assets, and future investment opportunities.

As a featured guest, Andy Liu has long been deeply involved in the crypto industry, possessing a diversified background in investment management, institutional services, on-chain data analysis, and industry research. He currently leads the overall research framework at HTX Research, covering areas such as macro market correlations, industry trends, and CEX asset strategy research.

Q2 Market Adjustment: Repricing Amid Changes in Global Funding Costs

Reviewing market performance in the second quarter of 2026, Andy noted that Bitcoin's price fell from a peak of approximately $82,000 in mid-May to a temporary low of around $59,000 in June, a maximum drawdown of nearly 24%. However, he described this not as "the end of the crypto industry cycle," but as a concentrated repricing event triggered by the contraction of global dollar liquidity.

Regarding the crypto market in Q3, Andy presented three core judgments:

1. Liquidity Matters More Than Geopolitics: Short-term events may influence market sentiment, but the true trend drivers are energy prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the direction of the U.S. dollar.

2. Cash Flow Matters More Than Narratives: The market no longer rewards grand narratives or inflated TVL figures. Protocols must demonstrate genuine revenue, token burns, and value capture mechanisms.

3. Infrastructure Matters More Than Price: Price corrections have not halted infrastructure expansion. Developments in RWA, stablecoins, on-chain securities, AI Agent payments, and institutional compliance channels continue to advance. The long-term direction of Crypto is shifting from a market for native asset trading to an integral part of the global financial infrastructure.

Comprehensive Analysis of Top Assets: Where Is Institutional Capital Flowing?

Addressing the performance of core crypto assets, Andy Liu analyzed key sectors including BTC, ETH, DeFi, and RWA, considering the liquidity environment, institutional capital allocation, and asset value capture capabilities.

BTC (Overweight) - Now a Proxy Variable for Global Liquidity: BTC is no longer just a native crypto asset; it has become a core expression tool for global liquidity. The key variables for Q3 are whether spot ETF flows return to a positive track, the direction of Fed policy, and the pace of Treasury issuance. BTC remains the primary entry point for institutional allocation, offering strong defensive qualities and resilience.

ETH (Neutral/Tactically Long) - Facing Value Capture Challenges: While Layer 2 solutions have improved network efficiency, they have eroded mainnet fee revenue. ETH's current pain point is that ecosystem growth has not effectively translated into token value. Q3 valuation recovery for ETH hinges on three catalysts: a rebound in L1 fees and token burns, net inflows into ETFs, and positive regulatory developments. DeFi (Selectively Overweight Leaders) - Entering the Cash Flow Era: The era of valuing projects solely by TVL is over. "Quality DeFi" protocols with real revenue redistribution mechanisms, strong risk isolation capabilities, and deep integration with compliant capital are poised for revaluation.

RWA (Consistently Overweight) - A Structural Theme Across Cycles: In a high-interest-rate environment, RWA assets like tokenized U.S. Treasuries provide a natural yield outlet for on-chain capital. Their growth does not depend on bullish market sentiment but stems from genuine institutional compliance allocation needs, making it one of the most certain sectors currently.

Long-tail Altcoins (Underweight): Given insufficient stablecoin expansion, significant unlock pressures, and constrained liquidity, long-tail altcoins lack the foundation for a broad-based rally.

Andy concluded that the Q3 Crypto market will not be driven by a single narrative but will be determined by two main themes: whether global liquidity experiences marginal improvement, and whether regulatory clarity is sufficient to reopen institutional risk budgets.

Regulation Shifts from Risk Discount to Market Catalyst

Regarding regulatory trends, Andy believes that in the past few years, regulation was largely viewed by the market as a risk factor, impacting asset valuations through a risk discount. However, as the industry matures, regulatory clarity is becoming a new market catalyst.

He emphasized that the market isn't seeking the loosest regulation, but rather clear and defined rules. "The clearer the rules, the easier it is for institutions to determine which assets and businesses can be included on their balance sheets."

In his Q3 market outlook, Andy argued that regulatory progress is more critical for assets like Ethereum, DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA. Compared to Bitcoin, which already has ETFs and mature institutional entry points, these areas may have greater upside potential from regulatory improvements.

To conclude the lecture, Andy offered a final thought: "The Q3 market will not reward all risks; it will only reward risks supported by liquidity, genuine cash flow, and a clear regulatory path."

Q&A Hot Topics: ETF, Four-Year Cycle Theory, and the 'Altcoin Struggle'

During the interactive Q&A session, Andy provided in-depth answers to the audience's most pressing market questions:

● On 'Blessing or Curse of the ETF':

Regarding Bitcoin's recent volatility driven by ETF outflows, Andy argued that the ETF is not the sole determinant of price action but rather an "amplifier." The inclusion of ETFs has increased Bitcoin's sensitivity to macro liquidity, allowing traditional institutions to adjust positions quickly. The true engine of the market remains the improvement of global liquidity. Furthermore, ETF inflows do not equate to blind bullishness, as they include substantial basis trading and hedging activities.

● On Whether the 'Four-Year Cycle Theory' is Obsolete:

Andy believes the four-year 'halving cycle' hasn't become obsolete, but it has evolved from an "iron law" into a "reference for supply rhythm." Given Bitcoin's massive existing stock and its deep integration into global asset allocation systems, a super bull run only occurs when the "supply contraction of the halving cycle" resonates with the "liquidity expansion cycle of the U.S. dollar."

● Deconstructing the 'Altcoin Liquidity Crisis':

Why are stablecoin market caps hitting new highs while most altcoins continue to decline? Andy pinpointed four reasons. First, institutional capital enters BTC via ETFs and no longer trickles down to altcoins as it used to. Second, stablecoin use cases have expanded dramatically (e.g., cross-border payments, RWA); increased stablecoin supply does not equate to a "queue to buy altcoins." Third, altcoin supply is huge, facing immense unlock pressures and early investor exits. Fourth, the market has become immune to "narrative coins" lacking genuine value capture.

The HTX Expert Lecture series is a long-term educational initiative by Huobi Growth Academy. It aims to invite top global scholars, industry leaders, and experienced practitioners for in-depth discussions on frontier fields such as the crypto industry, artificial intelligence, and Web3, helping users understand the underlying logic behind market trends and build independent thinking frameworks.