币股风向标丨Strategy现金储备增至32.3亿美元暂停增持BTC；先锋集团等资管机构增持Strategy股票（7月21日）
- Core Viewpoint: The current global capital market is facing high volatility and declining risk appetite. Concerns over an AI bubble have pushed short positions in U.S. stocks to record highs. Crypto-related stocks lack incremental opportunities amid a regulatory vacuum, while the overall allocation pace of Bitcoin treasury companies has significantly slowed.
- Key Factors:
- U.S. stock short positions hit record highs: The S&P 500 short ratio reached 3.79%, and the Russell 3000 reached 6.3%, both the highest since 2010, reflecting investor doubts about the sustainability of AI-driven tech stocks and high market valuations.
- Fed rate hike expectations rise: Fed officials have signaled a hawkish stance, strengthening market expectations for rate hikes. Coupled with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 20% from its historical high, tech stocks are leading the market decline, with a clear shift in capital style.
- Crypto concept stock bubble deflating: Among the active leading players in the field, only a few have sustained fundraising or self-sustaining capabilities. With a lack of favorable regulatory policy catalysts in the short term, we recommend only engaging in short-term rebound speculation.
- Listed companies' BTC purchases plummet: Global listed companies net purchased only $1.33 million worth of BTC last week, a 98.4% decrease month-over-month. Strategy did not purchase BTC and increased its cash reserves to $3.23 billion, indicating weakened overall allocation momentum.
- ETH treasury company BitMine continues to accumulate: BitMINE's ETH holdings have increased to 5.78 million tokens (representing 4.8% of circulating supply). Its combined crypto assets and cash value total $11.5 billion. The company repurchased 5.5 million shares last week, demonstrating long-term confidence in Ethereum.
- Some institutions increase Strategy stock holdings against the trend: Vanguard Group's VOE fund, Swedbank AB, and ETFs managed by Capital Group have all increased their MSTR stock positions. While bearish on the broader market, these institutions remain optimistic about its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
- Altcoin treasury performance remains weak: HypeStrat did not adjust its treasury this week. Its mNAV has fallen to a long-term low of 0.87x, and post-tax to just 0.80x, indicating pressure on assets related to the DAT model.
Editor's Note: In last week's "Crypto-Equity Barometer" article, we provided a brief commentary on markets including Korean stocks, US stocks, A-shares, and crypto-related equities.
Currently, due to factors such as interest rate hikes, high leverage, and liquidity tightening, the Korean stock market remains in a period of high volatility risk. It may enter what analysts previously described as a "sideways decline" in the short term to squeeze out bubbles. The US stock market, meanwhile, remains highly dependent on extreme geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran situation and Trump's statements. ChangXin Memory Technologies' successful IPO did not act as a catalyst for A-shares to forge an independent trend, and its pre-market price has already seen some decline, with the memory sector continuing to face pressure. In summary, the stock market is in a phase of aggressive deleveraging; do not increase loan or other financing leverage ratios to participate in capital securities market investments.
Regarding crypto-related stocks, the DAT model, after a year of development, has largely completed its bubble cleansing. Among the active top players still in the market, only a few have sustained fundraising capabilities or self-sustaining profitability. Without favorable regulatory policy catalysts, a turnaround is unlikely in the short term. Among US-compliant stocks like Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, only Robinhood has an incremental market. The former two have extremely limited self-sustaining ability and growth potential; cautious investment is advised, with strict position control, limited to short-term rebound trades.
For more crypto-stock market information, please refer to MSX.COM. (Odaily Note: This content does not constitute investment advice and is for learning and exchange purposes only.)
US Stocks Remain the Global Capital Market Bellwether: AI Bubble Spurs Short Bets, Rate Hike Expectations Re-emerge
AI Bubble Concerns Intensify, Short Bets on US Stocks Hit Highest Since 2010
As worries over AI-related risks grow, bearish bets on US stocks are climbing to record highs, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally.
Data shows that short positions in S&P 500 constituents as a percentage of free float have neared 3.79%, the highest level since S3 Partners began tracking in 2010. Meanwhile, the short interest ratio for Russell 3000 constituents recently rose to 6.3%, also a record high. Previously, the S&P 500 had gained about 18% since late March, driving the market higher. However, some investors are beginning to question whether the AI-driven tech rally is sustainable and whether the market faces a correction risk amid high valuations.
Analysts point out that the significant increase in short positions reflects investor concerns about AI bubble risks, earnings expectations, and market concentration, and could also be a key signal of increased market volatility. However, historical data shows that high short interest levels do not necessarily mean an imminent market decline. If corporate earnings continue to improve or AI investments yield above-expected returns, short covering could conversely drive stocks higher.
Analysis: Rate Hike Expectations and Capital Rotation Lead Tech Giants to Drag Down US Market
Major US indices opened lower last Friday, with tech stocks broadly declining. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen over 20% from its record closing high, potentially confirming entry into bear market territory. SK Hynix's ADR fell below its IPO price of $149 for the first time. SpaceX's stock price dropped 38% from its peak, wiping out approximately $1 trillion in market value. AMD fell over 7%, Intel over 6%, and TSMC over 5%. Some analysts suggest that the ongoing correction in chip stocks has moved beyond fundamentals, driven more by capital style rotation and shifts in market preference.
Additionally, dissatisfaction with inflation expressed by Fed Chair Warsh during hearings has amplified market expectations for rate hikes. "Hawkish" signals from other Fed officials have also intensified market anxiety. Among them, US Logan has explicitly called for rate hikes; US Schmid warned that the risk of inflation accelerating further in the coming months remains. On the geopolitical front, the prospects for a US-Iran war remain uncertain, dampening market risk appetite.
Weekly Updates on Crypto-Listed Companies
Representative Companies with BTC Treasuries
According to SoSoValue data, as of 8:00 AM ET on July 20, 2026, the total net weekly BTC purchases by global listed companies (excluding mining companies) last week was $1.33 million, a 98.4% decrease compared to the previous week.
According to official documents, Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin last week. Strategy's USD reserves increased by approximately $225 million to about $3.23 billion.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet did not purchase Bitcoin last week.
Additionally, one other company bought Bitcoin last week. Asset management firm Strive announced on July 20 that it spent $1.15 million to purchase 21 Bitcoins at a price of $63,221, bringing its total holdings to approximately 19,921 BTC.
Capital holding company ORANGE JUICE announced the completion of a $40 million fundraising round, with proceeds intended for Bitcoin purchases.
As of press time, the total Bitcoin holdings of global listed companies (excluding mining companies) in the statistics stand at 1,139,656 BTC, an increase of 0.002% from last week, with a current market value of approximately $73.76 billion, representing 5.7% of Bitcoin's circulating market cap.
Expanding Investor Reach, Capital B Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split
BitcoinTreasuries.NET stated that Bitcoin treasury company Capital B (ALCPB) announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective September 8, to support institutional development and make its stock accessible to a broader investor base.
BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that listed company Bitcoin Japan Corporation (8105.T) has raised $60 million through convertible bonds and allocated $4.08 million for its initial BTC purchase to fund its treasury.
Bitcoin treasury startup ORANGE JUICE announced on July 15, 2026, the completion of a $40 million funding round, with Grupo Salinas Founder and Chairman Ricardo Salinas serving as the cornerstone investor. Other Bitcoin investors including Jeff Booth and Lyn Alden also participated.
ORANGE JUICE plans to acquire small businesses with annual cash flows between $1 million and $10 million, deploying a portion of retained earnings for new acquisitions and Bitcoin purchases. The company stated it will rely less on debt and equity issuance, primarily utilizing operating cash flow for growth.
Ruben Zweiban will serve as Operating Partner overseeing daily operations. He previously worked as an investment banker at BofA Securities, an equity research analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management, and served as CIO of a billion-dollar private multi-family office. The company also plans to seek a public listing in the future.
Multiple Institutions Increase Holdings of Strategy Stock: Vanguard Group Funds, Swedbank AB, Capital Group's Growth ETF (CGGR)
Asset management giant Vanguard Group's Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE) disclosed an increase of 83,093 shares in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), valued at $8.16 million; it now holds a total of 2.12 million shares worth $209 million.
Swedbank AB, with $264 billion in assets under management, stated it increased its holdings in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy by 8,278 shares, bringing its total position to 90,590 shares worth $8.81 million.
Capital Group, managing $3.3 trillion in assets, through its Growth ETF (CGGR) disclosed an increase of 80,240 shares in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), valued at $7.78 million. It currently holds a total of 1.66 million shares worth $161.39 million. Capital Group is the world's largest active fund manager.
Representative Companies with ETH Treasuries
BitMine's Crypto Assets, Cash, and Securities Reach $11.5 Billion; ETH Holdings Rise to 5.78 Million
Ethereum treasury company BitMine stated that its ETH holdings have reached 5.78 million, accounting for approximately 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply, nearing its cumulative goal of holding 5% of all ETH. The company added 7,430 ETH over the past week.
BitMine noted that its crypto assets, cash, and marketable securities are valued at $11.5 billion, including 207 Bitcoins and $385 million in cash and securities. Approximately 4.9 million of its ETH are staked via the validator network and partners, representing about 85% of the treasury.
BitMine also repurchased 5.5 million shares over the past week under its previously authorized $4 billion buyback program. Earlier this month, BitMine reported that its institutional staking platform MAVAN generated $45.7 million in staking and validation revenue in the three months ending May 31, accounting for 98% of the company's total revenue.
Representative Companies with SOL Treasuries
None.
Representative Companies with Altcoin Treasuries
mNAV Drops to Long-Term Low, HypeStrat Made No Changes to Company Treasury This Week
HyperliquidNews reported that DAT HypeStrat made no adjustments to its company treasury this week, purchasing neither Hyperliquid's native tokens nor PURR. Its mNAV has dropped to a long-term low, currently at 0.87x, and 0.80x after tax.
