Odaily Editors' Tea Chat (July 8)
- Core View: Several industry practitioners shared their recent observations on the crypto market, prediction markets, and the US stock market. They believe that semiconductor and memory stocks are in a "squatting" phase (dipping), prediction markets involve complex counterparties and referee factors, and the Meme coin market is primarily a small-cap PVP (Player vs. Player) affair. They suggest monitoring trend reversals and sector rotation opportunities.
- Key Elements:
- Memory stocks (e.g., DRAM) have corrected by nearly 30%, but the cooperation between ChangXin Memory Technologies and Apple indicates continued supply tightness, leading to a long-term bullish outlook; this is considered a "deep squat" phase.
- The World Cup prediction market is highly complex. Strong teams ultimately win, but weaker teams perform better. Referees and FIFA interests can influence outcomes. It’s recommended to buy during the game rather than before it.
- STRC has fallen below $90, leaning towards shorting crypto-concept stocks. Circle and Coinbase are only suitable for a bounce trade and require caution.
- US software stocks have recently performed strongly (Microsoft, Salesforce, etc.), with observations ongoing to determine if the rally is a dead cat bounce or a fundamental recovery.
- The Meme coin market is primarily a small-cap PVP game. Focus on new opportunities on the Robinhood chain, but the overall difficulty is high.
- Semiconductor giants' capex plans are a key indicator. SK Hynix's US listing may provide short-term relief, but medium to long-term trends depend on earnings guidance.
- Hedge funds have been heavily buying tech stocks since last October; this rotation signal can be followed. RKLB's stock price fell after the founder's share sale window closed, but it has upward elasticity.
This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their finer details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified — these may not be direct wealth keys, but could also just be questions themselves; shares observations gained from communicating with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and chat together.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Bio: Tea-fetching junior, crypto soy sauce passer, media observer
Sharing: 1. A pullback in US and Korean stock markets, with the magnitude even exceeding the previously mentioned 20%-25%, nearing 30%. Although industry analysis suggests that the memory hype cycle is over and it's time for the cloud vendor hype wave, based on the cooperation between CXMT and Apple, I believe DRAM is still in a stage of supply shortage and tend to think memory stocks are currently in a 'deep squat' phase.
2. Following predictions in the prediction market led to heavy losses, while betting small myself yielded some small profits. It just goes to show you can't blindly follow. Including the Argentina vs. Cape Verde and Argentina vs. Egypt matches, although the strong teams ultimately won, the performance of the underdogs on the field was actually more impressive. It suggests that maximizing commercial interests for referees and FIFA is the eternal tone of the World Cup. Therefore, I am more bullish on France winning the championship. My previous prediction bet of 10 U on France has already doubled.
3. STRC briefly returned above 90 before breaking down again. Currently, I still lean towards shorting crypto-themed stocks, especially DAT Treasury company targets; Circle and Coinbase are targets for a rebound play.
4. Software stocks in the US market have performed relatively well recently, including Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow. It's still unclear whether this is a dead cat bounce or a genuine fundamental recovery.
Bcxiongdi (@bcxiongdi)
Bio: Expert at selling too early, profit forever elusive
Sharing: 1. Meme market rehabilitation training. Over the past week, whether on SOL or BSC, there have been quite a few opportunities, but overall remains dominated by small-cap PVP. I also sold too early on a big basket. You can keep an eye on the Robinhood chain that emerged today.
2. Played a couple of rounds in the World Cup prediction market. It feels even harder than Meme trading. Try not to buy before the game starts. If you fancy a particular team, wait for an opportunity during the match to buy the dip.
Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Bio: Noob, still learning a lot
Sharing: 1. Continuing to watch the US stock market. Firstly, the major correction in semiconductors, which is the market's biggest concern. The biggest question mark now is whether the giants will maintain their capex. SK Hynix's US listing on Friday might be a short-term sentiment relief point, but in the medium to long term, we need to see how the giants plan their future capex in their quarterly earnings reports. Personally, I believe market demand won't change, and I will consider buying the dip (focusing on DRAM).
2. A potential rotation signal. Since last October, hedge funds have been heavily buying tech stocks again. Might be worth following.
3. The selling window scheduled by RKLB's founder closes today. The stock price also fell back to the initial reduction level last night. I will continue to add positions. At this level, the downward space for 'Small Rocket' is limited, while the upward potential is sufficiently imaginative.
