BTC falls below the critical $60,000 mark: Why prediction markets are collectively bearish on the crypto market for the second half of the year

Overview

In June 2026, Bitcoin fell below the psychological barrier of $60,000 once again, dipping to around $59,100 at one point during the session, marking its lowest level since the end of 2024. This is not an isolated event. Throughout June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding $4 billion. Concurrently, on prediction markets like Polymarket, the probability assigned by traders for "BTC hitting $150,000 this year" was slashed to less than 1%. Market sentiment is undergoing a systematic repricing. This article will dissect the chain reaction of this critical level breakdown, the specific data on institutional capital flight, and the signals for the second half of the year revealed by prediction markets, helping you understand the real driving forces behind the current correction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin broke below $60,000 on June 24, trading in a range around $59,100 to $60,200, representing a decline of over 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

In June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows, with cumulative outflows reaching $4.4 billion at one point, the most severe capital exodus since the ETFs were approved in early 2024.

The probability of "Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year" on Polymarket has fallen to less than 1% (as of the June 30 window) and around 5% (as of the December 31 window), while the probability of "closing the year below $100,000" once reached as high as 61%.

The derivatives market simultaneously experienced a wave of liquidations, with single-day liquidation volumes hitting between $1 billion and $3 billion at various points, the vast majority being forced liquidations of long positions.

The $60,000 level has transitioned from a previous support zone to a potential resistance area, due to over $1.2 billion in open interest for put options in the derivatives market.

Why Bitcoin Fell Below $60,000 Again

This decline was not triggered by a single event but resulted from multiple pressures converging simultaneously. According to a CoinDesk report, Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, pointed out that over the past year, a large amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, had established positions with a cost basis concentrated in the $60,000 to $67,000 range. When the price broke below this range, the unrealized losses for these buyers began to widen, and the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin relative to the surge in AI stocks became increasingly high, creating the impetus for panic selling.

Simultaneously, a Bloomberg analysis pointed out that this decline was accompanied by growing concerns about the sustainability of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) financing mechanisms, as well as a general shift in retail traders' attention and capital. Many individual investors are turning their focus towards artificial intelligence concept stocks instead of chasing crypto assets. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel also noted in a report that selling activity from long-term holders (those holding for more than 6 months) is increasing, which is typically seen as a classic signal of capital capitulation in the later stages of a cycle.

The macroeconomic landscape is equally significant. According to IG market analysis, the sharp correction in the AI and semiconductor sectors, delays in the progress of the US CLARITY Act, and early selling signals from long-term holders collectively acted as the trigger for this decline.

June ETF Net Outflow Data: Institutional Capital is Exiting in Force

If retail panic is the surface phenomenon, then the exodus of institutional capital is the core driving force behind this correction. According to NFT Plazas, citing SoSoValue data, as of early June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This is the longest streak of capital withdrawals since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.

The significance of this figure lies in the fact that ETFs have been the core pillar supporting the institutional demand narrative for Bitcoin over the past two years. According to a CNBC report, the net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk significantly from $107.8 billion on May 14 to $80.4 billion. This level of capital outflow indicates that the core buying power that previously supported price increases is systematically weakening. Notably, this consecutive outflow record was eventually broken on a trading day in June, with a single-day net inflow of about $3 million. However, this was largely interpreted by the market as a technical breather rather than a signal of a trend reversal.

Why Are Polymarket Prediction Markets Collectively Bearish?

Prediction market pricing often reflects real market sentiment derived from "skin-in-the-game" bets better than traditional analyst reports. According to a Bitcoin.com News report, the annual Bitcoin price market on Polymarket, with a trading volume of up to $45 million, showed that traders assigned a 64% probability to Bitcoin falling to or hitting $50,000 before the end of 2026. Meanwhile, a market on the Kalshi platform with over $10 million in trading volume gave Bitcoin only a 14% probability of returning to $100,000 by January 2027.

Even more symbolic is the probability change in the market for "BTC hitting $150,000 this year." According to real-time data from the Polymarket page, the probability for this target in the June 30 window has fallen below 1%. Even when considering the end-of-year window of December 31, the probability is only around 5%. In contrast, earlier this year, analysts at institutions like Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein were still widely predicting Bitcoin would reach $150,000 in 2026. A previous CoinMarketCap report indicated that this probability was still 21% in early January this year; it has now narrowed significantly.

For the more bearish proposition of "closing the year below $100,000," a previous The Block report showed that its probability once reached 61%, reflecting a deepening of cautious and even pessimistic sentiment among traders regarding the market's trajectory in the second half of the year. Behind this collective bearishness lies both concern over the ebbing of institutional buying and uncertainty regarding the pricing of new market dynamics after the disruption of the traditional four-year cycle pattern.

After Breaking Below $60,000, Where is the Next Strong Support Level?

Technically, the significance of the $60,000 level extends beyond psychology; it also has a structural impact on the derivatives market. According to IG's analysis, data from the Deribit derivatives exchange shows that the open interest for put options at the $60,000 strike price exceeds $1.2 billion. Market makers hedging this position often need to sell spot or futures when the price approaches this strike price, and this "gamma hedging" behavior itself can accelerate the decline.

Looking downwards, multiple analysis reports provide relatively consistent expectations for support levels. One view suggests the $55,000 level (corresponding to the February 2026 low and a historical volume-weighted average price zone) is the first key support. If this level is lost further, the market could accelerate towards testing the $50,000 to $52,000 range, which converges multiple technical indicators such as miner production costs and long-term holder cost basis. According to other on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant, the area around $53,600 is also identified as a statistically significant potential support level, incorporating metrics like historical price action and the realized price of short-term holders.

It is crucial to emphasize that these support levels are reference ranges calculated based on historical data and on-chain metrics, not deterministic predictions. The high volatility of the crypto market means actual price movements could still deviate significantly from the predictions of any single model.

The Domino Effect of Liquidations in the Derivatives Market

This decline was accompanied by a significant deleveraging event. According to IG's statistics, the single-day liquidation volume on June 24 alone reached approximately $994 million, with about $780 million coming from forced liquidations of long positions. Earlier in June, multiple reports showed that single-day liquidation volumes briefly exceeded ranges between $1 billion and $3 billion, partly due to cascading stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling triggered after the price broke below key technical levels like $65,000.

The formation mechanism of this liquidation wave exhibits classic negative feedback characteristics: the price decline triggers the liquidation of leveraged longs, the forced selling to close positions further depresses the price, which in turn triggers a new round of liquidations at lower levels. Michael Saylor, the high-profile founder of Strategy, has also publicly warned that the presence of not-fully-cleared leveraged longs in the system means that once $60,000 is lost, collateral metrics could deteriorate rapidly, triggering a new wave of automated cascading liquidations.

In such a high-volatility environment, both spot and futures traders require more sophisticated risk management tools to handle potential sharp fluctuations. If you aim to capture structural opportunities within the volatility, MEXC offers a comprehensive trading system covering spot and futures, complemented by real-time liquidation data and funding rate monitoring tools, which can help traders better gauge the progress of market deleveraging.

Divergence in Market Sentiment and Institutional Views

It is worth noting that not all market participants are pessimistic. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, stated in an interview with CNBC that this is the fifth time Bitcoin has touched its 200-week moving average, and the previous four instances proved to be excellent buying opportunities during dips. Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Syz Group, attributed the recent decline to selling pressure from Strategy and the capital siphon effect as "hot money" flows into AI stocks and South Korean memory chip stocks.

Meanwhile, the 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and traditional tech indices like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 has fallen sharply from levels near perfect positive correlation a month ago. This suggests the market is re-evaluating the two previously coexisting narratives for Bitcoin – "digital gold" versus "high-beta tech stock" – and the tension between them is becoming increasingly apparent.

Exclusive View from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

We believe the current correction below $60,000 is fundamentally the result of a resonance between two forces: the institutional capital "repricing cycle" and the "structural migration" of retail attention, rather than being mere panic selling. The 13 consecutive days of net ETF outflows do not reflect a rejection of Bitcoin's long-term value by the market, but rather a short-term reallocation of risk-on capital between the AI narrative and the crypto narrative. This type of capital rotation has appeared in every historical cycle when technology themes shifted and typically possesses phasic characteristics.

From the pricing logic of prediction markets, the two data points – "probability of $150,000 drops to 1%" and "61% probability of closing below $100,000" – appear extremely pessimistic. However, they should be understood as traders reasonably pricing the uncertainty of the short-term path, rather than a fundamental negation of Bitcoin's mid-to-long-term narrative. Historically, similar extreme bearish consensus has often been seen near cyclical bottom zones, rather than at the true starting point of a trend. But this is absolutely not a sufficient reason for "buying the dip." Whether the deleveraging is complete and whether ETF flows stabilize remain the two core variables demanding continuous tracking in the second half of the year. We recommend that traders in the current environment prioritize monitoring marginal changes in three indicators: funding rates, open interest, and spot ETF net flows, rather than relying solely on price for decision-making.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main reasons for Bitcoin falling below $60,000?

It is mainly due to the combined effect of four factors: weakening institutional buying power from consecutive days of net outflows in US spot ETFs, correlated risk asset selling triggered by the pullback in the AI and semiconductor sectors, forced liquidation of high-leverage longs at key technical levels, and signs of early profit-taking from long-term holders.

Why are prediction markets so bearish on Bitcoin?

The pricing on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflects market consensus derived from real capital bets, not a single analyst's viewpoint. Current data indicates that traders generally believe the probability of quickly returning to near all-time highs is very low in the short term and are more inclined to bet on continued downward pressure within the year. This aligns with the observable reality of ETF capital outflows and tightening macro liquidity conditions.

After losing $60,000, where is the next key support level?

Multiple technical analysis reports identify the $55,000 level and the $50,000 to $52,000 range as potential support areas. Some on-chain data models also point to the vicinity of $53,600 as having statistically significant support characteristics. However, these are all reference ranges, not definitive conclusions.

How should ordinary investors respond now?

It is advisable to avoid using excessive leverage in a high-volatility environment, closely monitor leading indicators such as ETF fund flows, liquidation data, and funding rates, and plan positions rationally based on personal risk tolerance, rather than chasing highs and selling lows.

Are the probability data from prediction markets reliable?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of participants through real capital trading. Historically, their accuracy has been relatively high for predictions made one month before an event. However, their essence is still probability pricing based on current information, which continuously adjusts dynamically as new information emerges. They do not constitute a deterministic guarantee of the future.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and risky. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The price levels, probability data, and market forecasts mentioned in this article are based on public information available as of the time of writing and may become invalid with market changes. Readers should exercise independent judgment based on their own financial circumstances and may consult professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions.