BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Multiple Bearish Factors Converge, Crypto Market Suffers Worst Weekly Drop Since FTX, Macro and On-Chain Panoramic Review

1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1. Strong NFP Shocks Markets: Rate Cut Expectations Reverse, Hiking Bets Intensify

The biggest macro variable this week was the U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls report. Employment rose by 172,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. The strong jobs data significantly cooled expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, with markets beginning to re-price the risk of a rate hike. Goldman Sachs has also pushed back its rate cut expectations to 2027. Following the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.55%, hitting a two-week high. The Nasdaq fell sharply by 4.2% in a single day, with tech and semiconductor stocks notably under pressure. Broadcom fell over 12% in a single day due to disappointing AI revenue guidance, dragging down stocks like Micron, Arm, and AMD, indicating that valuation pressures are unwinding after the crowded AI trade.

1.2. Geopolitics and Energy: Glimmer of Hope in Iran Talks, but Middle East Risks Persist

President Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered the "final critical phase," and discussions regarding a ceasefire related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to advance. This has led to a temporary moderation of market concerns regarding extreme risks in the Middle East, with WTI and Brent crude oil both falling over 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and joint U.S.-Israeli military actions are further reinforcing regional uncertainty. Combined with the Eurozone's May inflation rate rising to 3.2%, energy prices are further strengthening market concerns about "reflation" and limiting the Fed's scope for future rate cuts. Copper prices continue to rise due to the approaching tariff review, with both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup raising their year-end price targets.

1.3. Key Fed Window: Warsh's First FOMC in Sight, This Week's CPI Becomes Global Focus

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 17th. While maintaining rates unchanged in June remains the market's base case, the pricing logic has shifted from "when to cut" to "whether to hike again." The U.S. May CPI report, released this Wednesday, will serve as the most critical data point before the June FOMC meeting. If inflation exceeds expectations again, Treasury yields could continue to rise, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a significant drop in CPI could alleviate market concerns about "reflation."

Meanwhile, SpaceX's planned IPO on June 12th, with an estimated valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion, combined with the liquidity-siphoning effect of large IPOs like Anthropic, may continue to suppress risk asset elasticity. Additionally, the Japanese Yen is approaching the 160 level. If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises rates on June 16th, the unwinding of carry trades could also create additional shocks for tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

2.1. Market Overview: BTC Plunges ~17% Weekly, Marking Worst Week Since FTX Collapse

The crypto market experienced its most severe single-week decline this week since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC fell from around $72,700 in early June to hit $61,100 on June 5th, recording a weekly drop of approximately 17%-20%. ETH fell by roughly 22% in tandem, currently trading around $1,682, representing a decline of about 66% from its all-time high.

The total cryptocurrency market cap dropped from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, with approximately $390 billion evaporating in one week. Total leveraged liquidations for the week amounted to around $7 billion, with longs accounting for about $5.7 billion. Liquidations on June 5th alone reached $1.146 billion, affecting over 240,000 traders. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone. The core pressures driving this decline were the synchronized impact of decreased risk appetite in U.S. equities, surging Treasury yields, persistent ETF outflows, and the concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs.

2.2. Persistent Net Outflows from ETFs, Systematic De-Risking by Institutions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $325 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows standing at approximately $53.94 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows around $11.2 billion. The ETF outflows, combined with professional investors reducing their BTC exposure and continued selling by some institutions, are placing the crypto market under systemic de-risking pressure.

Strategy has paused its ATM equity offering program for purchasing coins, prioritizing instead the repurchase of approximately $1.5 billion in convertible notes. As a key marginal buyer of BTC over the past two years, this slowdown in its activity implies a weakening of short-term market support. Overall, the ongoing AI infrastructure investment boom continues to drain liquidity from the crypto market, and the siphoning effect of mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic remains a core obstacle for an independent crypto rally.

2.3. On-Chain Data: Whales Buy the Dip Alongside Significant Liquidation Risk

On-chain signals were clearly divergent this week. On one hand, some large holders began buying the dip. A prominent Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563. A whale bought a total of 93,330 ETH with approximately $152 million USDT. Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to his Maker vault, bringing his total collateral to 110,000 ETH to stave off liquidation risks.

On the other hand, liquidation risks have not been fully resolved. Three major whales holding a combined 345,000 ETH (approximately $537 million in value) still face liquidation threats, with liquidation prices in the range of $1,241 to $1,472. The total stablecoin market cap fell to $310 billion, a weekly decline of about 1.89%, indicating generally weak on-chain buying power. BTC is currently testing support near the 200-week moving average, around $61,821. This is the first touch of this key level since 2023. Whether it can hold support around $60,000 will be a core variable for determining short-term market direction.

2.4. Industry Narrative: Accelerated Derivatives Compliance, Fast-Tracked Institutional Infrastructure

The industry narrative this week continued to converge on "institutional-grade infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." The CME launched its Nasdaq Crypto Index Futures on June 8th, covering assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. On the same day, Coinbase, operating under the CFTC framework, launched four perpetual stock index futures: AI10, China10, Defense10, and Tech100.

Ondo Finance’s Ondo Perps went live on June 9th, attempting to extend perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equity-class assets like stocks. Meanwhile, quantitative firms such as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are rapidly building prediction market teams to deploy cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp sell-off has not weakened the institutionalization trend; instead, it has reinforced the "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure" narrative. The crypto market is progressively shifting from being driven by retail sentiment towards being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

This article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risks. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.