BTC consolidation ≠ industry decline, Ansem: These three undervalued crypto tailwinds are worth watching
- Core Thesis: The underperformance of major mainstream cryptocurrencies in the current market does not signify an industry decline; rather, the industry is entering a mature phase. Stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization are the core structural narratives, and trends such as regulatory improvements and the integration of AI with crypto will foster more successful startups.
- Key Factors:
- Bitcoin's (BTC) weak performance is a temporary phenomenon. Its tendency towards 'Ponzi-like' characteristics and concerns over quantum computing are causing institutions to exit. However, its rise from $0.01 to nearly $100,000 over the past two decades has already successfully fulfilled its mission.
- Ethereum (ETH) is under pressure due to competition from new L1s and its own inability to capture sufficient revenue (especially by outsourcing execution to Rollups). Hyperliquid demonstrates a successful model of integrating business directly into an L1 token.
- The trend towards improved crypto regulation is clear, lowering the barrier to entry for startups. Existing tech companies like Robinhood and Stripe/Tempo have acknowledged the advantages of blockchain.
- Since the bottom of 2022, AI has stolen crypto's attention, and tech stocks have outperformed crypto. However, three major synergistic trends exist between AI and crypto: the rising competitiveness of open-source AI, the ease of starting businesses with small teams, and stablecoins/blockchains being the optimal infrastructure for AI agent transactions.
Original Author: Ansem
Original Translation: TechFlow
Introduction: When market sentiment is low, BTC is hovering at high levels, and ETH is under sustained pressure, voices claiming crypto is "over" are once again growing louder. Renowned trader Ansem offers a rebuttal in this post: poor performance by major coins does not equal industry decline. Stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization are the true structural narratives. For investors still struggling to allocate assets amid the confusion, this is a long-term framework worth taking seriously.
I disagree; crypto is simply going through a maturation phase.
Themes like stablecoins, perpetual contracts, and tokenization will continue to permeate the global economy, and we will see many successful crypto startups emerge from them.
Hyperliquid is just the first example, effectively demonstrating how powerful the combination of open blockchains and business tokenization can be—and many more will follow.
The root cause of the current negative sentiment in the crypto market lies in the poor performance of major mainstream coins. BTC has gone from $0.01 to $100,000 in less than twenty years, successfully fulfilling its mission of hedging against the continuous erosion of the US dollar's purchasing power. The problem Bitcoin faces today is the tendency towards "Ponzi-fication" driven by Saylor's playbook, which is temporary. I believe BTC will not see another clear trend upward until this issue is resolved. Additionally, concerns about quantum computing are real. These two factors, combined with institutional exit liquidity, provide ample reason for old BTC holders to de-risk into excess liquidity—we have already seen concrete cases, such as the large OTC trade handled by Galaxy (facilitating a $9 billion sale for a single entity in 2025). There are many similar individuals whose holdings have long been in infinite profit territory.
But just because BTC, after outperforming every other asset on earth for over a decade, underperforms for a few years, does not mean crypto is dead—that claim is absurd.
Ethereum is also suffering for its own unique reasons. I think I've talked about this topic enough, but indeed, it is being suppressed by competition from new entrants and has failed to make ETH a good asset worth holding long-term. All L1s are struggling on the demand side because historically, the narrative for these tokens was "future growth" rather than real revenue. But now that Hyperliquid has practically demonstrated that a business can be directly attached to an L1 token, the previous L1s are at a disadvantage—they capture far too little revenue from the applications built on their infrastructure. Ethereum's situation is worse because it has also outsourced execution activity to rollups.
But this also does not mean that no more successful crypto startups will emerge.
There is a very clear trend towards improving crypto regulation, which will significantly lower the barrier for entrepreneurs to build crypto businesses. Meanwhile, existing tech companies are also acknowledging the advantages of blockchain, as evidenced by Robinhood, Stripe/Tempo, and others.
AI has captured a significant amount of attention that would have otherwise gone to crypto, and tech stocks have significantly outperformed crypto since the bottom of 2022. As a trader, allocating time between stocks and crypto is extremely prudent. In the past, if you were willing to take risks, overweighting crypto made sense—it was an emerging industry that experienced extraordinary returns as it moved towards the mainstream.
Going forward, with AI models improving exponentially in the coming years, there are three underestimated tailwinds for crypto:
1) Open-source AI will become much more competitive with closed-source AI
2) It will become much easier for small teams to build successful startups with the help of software
3) Stablecoins and blockchains are superior infrastructure for AI agents to transact
The convergence of these trends means that the crypto experiments and token innovation you see are likely to increase, not decrease—especially against the backdrop of a continuously improving regulatory environment and retail speculation becoming the next major trend.
