Bitget Research Weekly (Excerpt): SpaceX’s Mega IPO is Coming, Will the Market Face a Liquidity Drain?
- Core Viewpoint: This article analyzes the mild impact of the mega IPO wave on the market, compares the structural differences in liquidity between Hyperliquid and Bitget for Pre-IPO contracts, and dissects the extreme divergence in the stablecoin market along with the performance of quantitative strategies.
- Key Elements:
- Mild Impact from Mega IPO Wave: With SpaceX valued at $1.5-2.0 trillion, the impact of this historically largest IPO on the market is only about 1%. Historically, 12 months after a wave of IPOs, the S&P 500 has returned over 20%, although it may cause resonance in the already crowded tech sector.
- Pre-IPO Contract Liquidity Comparison: The explosion of Blue Origin's rocket caused the SpaceX contract on Hyperliquid to plummet 43% in 7 minutes, liquidating over 400 wallets. In contrast, Bitget employs a "spot + futures" dual-layer architecture, using spot inventory arbitrage to hedge, effectively suppressing the risk of price manipulation (spikes).
- Stablecoin Growth Divergence: USDGo has grown by 547% since March, driven by strong capital attraction backed by compliance. USDe’s market cap has shrunk by 25.5%, due to weakening marginal demand for algorithmic stablecoins.
- USDGo Combines Yield and Utility: Holding USDGo on Bitget can yield up to 4.3% APR daily, and it can be used as subscription assets for IPO Prime, with a strong peg to $1.
- Quantitative Strategies Generally Outperform: With BTC down 3.4% in May, 18 out of 22 strategies outperformed simply holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. The OBV volume-price divergence strategy topped the chart with an alpha of +7.41%.
Market Hotspots:
1. Mega IPO wave hits US stock market: SpaceX S-1 filed, expected to list as early as June (valuation $1.5-2.0T). Deutsche Bank estimates the largest IPO impact on the market at only ~1%. Historically, IPO waves act more as lagging indicators of bull markets; they do not cause significant market declines but instead lay the foundation for future bull runs. The Blue Origin rocket explosion caused the Hyperliquid SpaceX contract to flash crash 43% in 7 minutes, resulting in liquidations for 400+ retail investors. Bitget focuses on Pre-IPO spot assets, enabling market participants to engage in spot/contract arbitrage with higher market depth, effectively controlling extreme price wicking risks.
2. Stablecoin divergence intensifies: USDGO has grown 547% since March, driven by capital attraction from its compliant backing; USDe market cap has shrunk 25.5%, indicating weakening marginal demand for algorithmic stablecoins. USDGO offers a relatively high base yield on Bitget and can also be used as collateral for IPO Prime subscriptions, leading to strong market demand and maintaining a tight peg to $1.
3. BTC fell 3.4% in May; 18 out of 22 quantitative strategies outperformed holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. The OBV volume-price divergence strategy topped the list with +7.41%.
Assets to watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (Champions League catalyst), HYPE (reaching ATH), AVGO (June 3rd earnings), NG (Natural Gas).
1. Impact of Mega IPOs on the Market
Three mega IPOs - SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic - are set to list in quick succession. SpaceX's S-1 has been filed, with a listing expected in the second week of June, a valuation of $1.5-2.0T, and a capital raise of $75 billion making it the largest in history. The impact of the IPO wave itself on the market is moderate (around 1%). Historically, the median return for the S&P 500 in the 3 months following an IPO wave is about 8%, and over 12 months it exceeds 20% (as shown in the chart above, the yellow areas represent historical IPO wave periods, during which the S&P 500 generally maintained an upward trend).
Demand remains solid: household cash balances are $3.3 trillion above trend, Q1 profit growth is the strongest in 20 years, and buybacks remain elevated. However, there are concerns regarding positioning structure – overall stock positioning is at the 53rd percentile, but large-cap tech is at the 93rd percentile. In terms of fund flows, tech funds saw inflows of $9 billion, the largest in seven months, while flows from developed markets in Japan/Europe and emerging markets have been negative for six consecutive weeks. The IPO impact won't be uniform; it is likely to resonate most strongly in the overcrowded tech sector.
2. Hyperliquid vs Bitget Pre-IPO Contract Liquidity
On May 29th, the static fire test of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket ended in an explosion, wiping out approximately $8 billion in market value for the space sector. Panic quickly spread to SpaceX Pre-IPO assets. The Hyperliquid SPACEX contract plummeted from $2,286 to $1,299 in 7 minutes (-43%), triggering the forced liquidation of positions across over 400 wallets (liquidation value $1.51 million).
Bitget's SPCXUSDT employs a differentiated architecture: it primarily features preSPCX spot tokens, and with the spot peg, the contract market enjoys higher liquidity. Market makers can use spot inventory for arbitrage hedging, effectively mitigating extreme price wicking during volatile periods. This "spot + contract" dual-layer architecture demonstrates structural advantages in liquidity depth and price stability.
3. Stablecoin Growth Analysis
Since March 1st, the growth trajectories of four stablecoins have diverged significantly. USDGO grew by 547% ($50M to $323M), issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and distributed by OSL (licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission). Its compliant backing creates a strong capital attraction. USDT and USDC grew steadily (+2.7%/+0.9%), maintaining their dominant market share. USDe's market cap shrank by 25.5%, as the negative funding rate environment during the BTC/ETH downtrend compressed the returns from its delta-neutral strategy. In terms of price stability, USDT and USDC deviate no more than 0.15%, USDe remains in the $0.999-$1.001 range, and USDGO has consistently maintained its peg to $1 recently, reflecting higher market demand.
Bitget users holding USDGO in their accounts automatically earn daily yields of up to 4.3% APR, without needing to stake or lock funds. Additionally, users who hold USDGO via Flash Exchange for over 14 days receive a two-way slippage subsidy, enabling a 1:1 zero-friction swap with USDT. USDGO can also be used as collateral for IPO Prime subscriptions, combining compliance with yield potential.
4. Quantitative Strategy Monthly Report
In May, BTC fell from $76,490 to $73,876 (-3.4%). Out of 22 strategies, 18 outperformed holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. Top tier strategies (alpha >4%): OBV Volume-Price Divergence (+7.41%), Traditional MACD (+7.04%), Bollinger Bands (+7.00%), Turtle Breakout (+4.98%), ATR Breakout (+4.96%), VWAP Mean Reversion (+4.44%), Order Flow (+4.07%). Negative alpha strategies: BarUpDn (-6.35%), Outside Bar (-4.49%). These strategies are overly directional and generate frequent false signals in trend-less environments.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a cumulative volume indicator. It adds the day's volume when the closing price rises and subtracts it when the price falls. Its core concept is "volume precedes price." Within a lookback window of 30 5-minute candles:
- When the price makes a new low but OBV fails to make a new low, it signals a bullish divergence, triggering a full buy.
- When the price makes a new high but OBV fails to make a new high, it signals a bearish divergence, triggering a full sell.
Best Risk-Return: VWAP Reversion (Sharpe 1.76), ATR Breakout (alpha +4.96%, drawdown only -2.64%). Recommended allocation priority: Mean reversion and classic technical strategies.
This article is excerpted from a weekly exclusive research report for VIP users. To read the full text, please upgrade to VIP and visit the official website. https://www.bitget.cloud/zh-CN/news/detail/12560605437591
Disclaimer: This report is for research and reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; investors should assess their own risks.
