The most bullish believer in AGI acceleration bought billions in notional puts in Q1?

In this round of 13F filings for the U.S. stock market, one of the most closely watched funds by the market is not Bridgewater or Berkshire Hathaway, but a fund with a very unique name — Situational Awareness LP.

Its manager, Leopold Aschenbrenner, is not a traditional Wall Street veteran but a former member of the OpenAI Superalignment team. In 2024, he published a lengthy article titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," which contained a very bold core thesis: AGI may arrive much sooner than most people expect, and what will truly be scarce in the future is not just model capabilities themselves, but compute power, electricity, data centers, chips, storage, and the national-level resource competition surrounding the AI arms race.

Two years later, time has proven him right.

Leopold internalized a set of judgments about the next decade of AGI and then mapped those judgments onto the capital markets. It is precisely for this reason that Situational Awareness, from its inception, has not looked like an ordinary tech fund, but rather like a translation of the AGI roadmap directly into an AI infrastructure investment map.

This is also why, in the field of AI investing, every move it makes attracts significant market attention. The latest 13F filing reveals that this most knowledgeable AI bull seems to be quietly building a large position in put options.

1. SALP: A Fund Built on the Conviction of AGI

Public information shows that Leopold founded an investment firm focused on AGI, backed by prominent Silicon Valley figures including Patrick Collison, John Collison, Nat Friedman, and Daniel Gross.

According to market reports, Situational Awareness achieved a net return of approximately +47% after fees in the first half of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and tech hedge fund indices over the same period. What makes it special is that it is not simply bullish on "tech stocks," but is highly concentrated on AI infrastructure, betting on where AI capital expenditure will ultimately flow.

As mentioned at the outset, his underlying logic is that if AGI truly accelerates, the first assets to be revalued may not be application-layer companies, but rather those controlling compute power, electricity, data centers, storage, optical communications, semiconductor equipment, and energy resources. Therefore, its high returns do not rely on simply buying the index, but on achieving divergence through a set of high-beta AI infrastructure names, such as Bloom Energy, Sandisk, Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Core Scientific.

First, a brief explanation of what a 13F is.

A 13F is a quarterly filing submitted to the SEC by U.S. institutional investment managers, typically used to observe changes in large funds' holdings of U.S. stocks, ETFs, and related options. However, it is essentially just a snapshot at the end of a quarter, telling the market "what was disclosed at a specific point in time." It cannot fully reconstruct a fund's entire trading strategy. Especially for options, the 13F does not reveal strike prices, expiration dates, or whether they are paired with other positions, and it cannot directly deduce the fund's true net exposure.

This is also where misinterpretations of this document are most common.

The reporting date for this Q1 13F was March 31. Last10K shows the filing was submitted on the evening of May 15 (Eastern Time), but the SEC acceptance time was May 18. This means it's not simply that it "wasn't filed"; there is a time lag between submission and when the market actually sees the disclosed results. This is why there was much discussion on social media platforms about "waiting for Leopold's 13F."

More importantly, the disclosed results of this 13F differed from the market's initial expectations. Many initially thought Leopold would continue to heavily increase positions in AI core assets like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, and ASML. However, the reality is that SALP established a large number of new put option positions, covering a range of AI and semiconductor core names, including the SMH semiconductor ETF, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, TSMC, ASML, and Intel.

This has led the market to reconsider a key question: Why is the person who most believes in the accelerated arrival of AGI starting to buy insurance on AI leaders?

Simply attributing it to "being bearish on AI" is too crude. What's truly worth analyzing is the macroeconomic context in which he made this move and the change in the AI trading structure it reflects.

2. Deciphering SALP's Latest 13F: From Betting on AI to Managing AI Volatility

The most striking action revealed in this 13F is undoubtedly SALP's establishment of a large number of put option positions:

• The largest is the SMH Semiconductor ETF PUT, with a disclosed value of approximately $2.043 billion;
• Followed by the NVDA PUT, approximately $1.568 billion;
• Then the ORCL PUT, approximately $1.073 billion;
• AVGO PUT, approximately $1.006 billion;
• And the AMD PUT, approximately $969 million;
• Additionally, it established positions in MU PUT, TSM PUT, ASML PUT, INTC PUT, and others;

On the surface, this looks like betting against AI leaders. But the issue is that PUT options do not necessarily represent a unilateral bearish bet — after all, the option amounts in 13F filings are more often notional values disclosed based on the size of the underlying securities, not the actual premium cost paid by the fund. More importantly, the 13F does not show strike prices, expiration dates, whether they are paired with other positions, or the true net exposure within the portfolio.

Therefore, directly stating that Leopold is "completely bearish on Nvidia and semiconductors" is not rigorous. A more reasonable interpretation is that he is buying "insurance" for his long AI infrastructure portfolio. Many of SALP's original holdings are inherently high-beta, high-volatility companies sensitive to interest rates, such as Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, Core Scientific, IREN, Applied Digital, and Sandisk. Their long-term thesis is tied to AI infrastructure, but their short-term stock prices often heavily depend on risk appetite and valuation environment.

Once the market begins to de-risk due to rising oil prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates, or geopolitical conflicts, these high-beta assets tend to be sold off first. This also relates to the macro backdrop at the end of March: on one hand, tensions in the Middle East and the risk of US-Iran conflict pushed up oil price expectations; on the other hand, higher oil prices can exacerbate inflation stickiness, reducing market confidence in rate cuts.

For high-valuation growth stocks, this translates to "double pressure": oil raises inflation, inflation suppresses rate cuts, rates stay high, and the valuations of long-duration tech assets come under compression.

Viewed against this backdrop, Leopold's move to establish a large number of PUTs becomes easier to understand. It is not a negation of AI, but an acknowledgment that no matter how strong the long-term AI thesis, it cannot completely ignore macro headwinds.

This is especially true for a fund like SALP, where the portfolio contains many high-beta assets. If it only held offensive positions, a systemic market drawdown would cause significant volatility in the portfolio's net value. By buying PUTs on liquid, representative AI core assets like SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, and ORCL, it can use standardized tools to hedge against systemic drawdown risk across the entire AI trade.

The true meaning behind this is that Leopold has not switched from being an AI bull to an AI bear; he has transitioned from "aggressively going long AI unilaterally" to "continuing to bet on AI infrastructure, but beginning to manage path volatility."

This reflects a more mature portfolio management approach.

3. So Where Is Leopold's Offensive Focus?

If the new PUTs address the "defensive question," it's the list of additions, reductions, and closures that truly tells us where Leopold's offensive focus lies.

Based on the disclosure, SALP retained and added to several AI infrastructure-related names. For example, it slightly increased its position in Sandisk common stock, and also added to positions in CoreWeave common stock, IREN, Applied Digital, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, Bitfarms, Bitdeer, and others. The significant long positions retained currently include Bloom Energy, Sandisk, CoreWeave, IREN, Core Scientific, and Applied Digital.

This shows it hasn't abandoned AI; on the contrary, it is still betting on the same long-term thesis: AI capital expenditure will continue to flow downstream, and the true beneficiaries are those companies that control electricity, data centers, storage, compute capacity, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

This is very close to the MSX Q2 main theme analysis. In our article, "AI Infrastructure Rallied All Q1; In Q2, Who Can Sustain 'High Valuations'?", we emphasized that the center of gravity in AI trading has shifted from simple GPUs to networks, storage, and electricity. The market is now more concerned with where the continuously expanding capital expenditure of big tech ultimately flows in terms of orders, revenue, and profit. Segments like equipment, networks, storage, and electricity are more advantageous not because they are sexier, but because they better align with the market's current preference for execution ability.

From this perspective, SALP's long positions are quite representative: Bloom Energy corresponds to electricity and independent energy supply; CoreWeave, Applied Digital, Core Scientific, and IREN correspond to data centers, compute hosting, and infrastructure capacity; positions related to Sandisk, Micron, and TSM correspond to storage, semiconductor manufacturing, and hardware supply.

In other words, Leopold hasn't stopped buying AI; he is more concerned with where the AI money ultimately gets spent, and who can translate that money into revenue on their financial statements.

Looking at the reductions and closures, they are equally informative. SALP closed its positions in INTC CALL, Lumentum, Cipher Mining, and reduced positions in CoreWeave CALL, Bloom Energy, Core Scientific, among others. The most notable aspect here is that it's not simply exiting a certain direction, but rather reducing positions that have appreciated significantly, are highly volatile, or carry more leverage.

For example, with CoreWeave, it reduced the CALL but still holds the common stock. This suggests it hasn't completely given up on CoreWeave, but has switched from a more aggressive option expression back to a relatively more manageable common stock position. Similarly, reducing positions in Bloom Energy and Core Scientific does not necessarily mean the thesis is invalid; it could more likely be a form of risk control and profit-taking at the portfolio level.

The closure of the Lumentum position is more intriguing. In our MSX Q1 review, AI hardware and optical communications were the two strongest themes. Among them, AXTI, AAOI, LITE, and LWLG all achieved double-digit or higher percentage gains. The strength of optical communications fundamentally stems from the explosive demand for optical interconnects, optical modules, and network links driven by AI data centers. However, the problem is that the more a theme runs in Q1, the more it faces the risk of crowded trades and a deteriorating risk-reward profile entering Q2.

So, Leopold closing LITE and reducing some high-beta AI infrastructure positions may not necessarily mean he is bearish on the direction. It could be a more realistic acknowledgment that: the most successful trades of Q1 are not necessarily the highest-conviction trades for Q2.

This is the most important aspect of this round of position adjustments. It is not a negation of AI, but an active structural shift: from buying anything on the AI chain, to retaining only those assets better positioned to absorb long-term capital expenditure, possess stronger infrastructure attributes, and better navigate macro volatility.

What he gave up on was not AI itself, but the linear fantasy that "all AI will rise together."

This 13F is essentially just a snapshot as of March 31. It does not mean Leopold still holds the exact same positions in May, but it still offers strong insights for the current market environment.

First, the long-term AI theme is not over, but the trading structure has changed. The future is not about buying any AI stock and seeing it rise; it's about who can deliver, who commands a premium, who is overcrowded, and who needs hedging.

Second, in an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and high volatility, the truly effective strategy is not simply all-out offense or full-on defense, but going on the offensive with a defensive posture — core positions bet on certainty, marginal positions bet on upside, while using hedging tools to control portfolio drawdowns. Leopold's recent actions essentially demonstrate this logic using real portfolio allocations.

Third, this also confirms a major shift in the 2026 U.S. stock market: weakening index Beta and strengthening structural Alpha. In the past, simply buying the Magnificent Seven or Nvidia might have guaranteed easy returns. But now, the market is more discerning. It will ask every company: Can your AI story ultimately translate into orders? Can it become revenue? Can it become profit? If not, no matter how high the valuation, it will be compressed.

This is why AI Infrastructure 2.0 is becoming important. Future capital will not just look at GPUs, but will search down the chain along Compute → Interconnect → Storage → Power → Data Center Infrastructure for segments that can truly deliver.

Final Thoughts

Looking only at the surface, the most eye-catching aspect of this 13F is the series of massive PUT positions.

But if you truly examine the entire portfolio, you'll find that Leopold hasn't "turned from an AI bull to a bear." Instead, he has undergone a more mature upgrade: Still betting on AI infrastructure in the long term, but beginning to acknowledge the volatility risks of high-valuation, high-beta assets in the short term.

This is the most important takeaway from this 13F. It tells us that the direction of AI might still be correct, but the path to that direction will certainly not be a straight line.

For a true portfolio manager, the most important thing has never been simply betting on the right destination, but surviving the volatility along the way.

For ordinary investors, the key insight from this 13F is also clear: AI trading in 2026 has moved from "buying stories" to "buying delivery"; from "buying leaders" to "finding bottlenecks"; and from "unilateral offense" to "attacking with a defense."

This is the most interesting signal, and one that absolutely should not be ignored.