Ceasefire Extended Indefinitely: How Long Will the US-Iran Conflict Drag On?

Original Title: Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Blockade as Peace Talks Stumble

Original Author: Courtney Subramanian and Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg

Original Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran just before the truce agreement was set to expire, while maintaining the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that the U.S. would extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, "and until negotiations conclude, regardless of the outcome"; he also emphasized that without this blockade, "it would be impossible to reach any agreement with Iran."

From a strategic perspective, the U.S. is attempting, through a combination of "extending the ceasefire and maintaining the blockade," to avoid an immediate escalation into a full-scale war while continuing to pressure Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program and negotiating terms. However, Iran has neither accepted the negotiating conditions nor requested an extension of the ceasefire. Instead, it has maintained a tough stance on energy exports and military posture, leaving both sides deadlocked on the core issues of "whether to negotiate and how."

More notably, this standoff has begun to spill over into global markets. As a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, the repeated opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz has not only exacerbated oil price volatility but also amplified uncertainty within the energy and shipping systems. In the short term, the ceasefire extension provides some buffer for the markets. However, over the medium to long term, without a clear negotiating framework and basic mutual trust, this passively extended ceasefire resembles a fragile balance that could be broken at any time.

As diplomatic avenues remain blocked and military deterrence continues to escalate, the next phase of this conflict will depend on whether the two sides return to the negotiating table or slide into more intense confrontation.

Following is the original text:

U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran just before the truce agreement was set to expire; meanwhile, the U.S. will maintain its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after planned peace talks between the two sides broke down.

Trump stated on his social media platform Truth Social that Pakistan, acting as a mediator, requested the U.S. to postpone a new round of strikes. The U.S. will extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, "and until negotiations conclude, regardless of the outcome." He also stated in another post that without this blockade, "it would be impossible to reach any agreement with Iran — unless we bomb the rest of their country, including their leaders!"

U.S. Vice President JD Vance had originally planned to travel to Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Tehran's representatives refused to attend, stating that the conditions proposed by the U.S. were "unacceptable." Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that there is currently "no realistic possibility" for Iran to participate in negotiations.

A White House official confirmed in a statement that the Vice President's planned trip for Tuesday would not take place.

This statement starkly contrasted with Donald Trump's remarks earlier that day. In an interview with CNBC, he said he "would expect bombing" if Iran did not meet his conditions, adding that the U.S. military was "ready and can act at any time." In a phone interview on Monday, Trump also stated that he would "very unlikely extend" the current ceasefire if an agreement was not reached.

Driven by the news of the ceasefire extension, oil prices rose for a second consecutive day. Brent crude oil, after surging nearly 9% over the previous two trading sessions, was trading at around $98 per barrel. Oil prices were below $60 per barrel in January this year, before peaking at $119.50 in March. The average retail price for gasoline in the U.S. is currently around $4 per gallon, compared to about $3 before the war broke out on February 28.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump in a statement for extending the ceasefire, "buying time for the ongoing diplomatic efforts to proceed smoothly."

James F. Jeffrey, former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor and current Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute, joined 'Bloomberg Businessweek Daily' to discuss the ceasefire extension in a conversation with hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.

He posted on X platform: "I sincerely hope both sides will continue to adhere to the ceasefire agreement and reach a comprehensive 'peace agreement' during the second round of talks in Islamabad, thereby achieving a permanent end to the conflict."

Senior Iranian officials had not yet responded to Donald Trump's statement as of late evening Tehran time. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, citing unnamed sources, reported that Iran did not request the ceasefire extension. Meanwhile, the agency stated that as long as the U.S. maintains the naval blockade, Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency, citing a military statement, reported that the Iranian armed forces "are in a state of full combat readiness, with their fingers on the trigger."

Security personnel guard a checkpoint near the Serena Hotel in Islamabad on April 22. Photo: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images.

These developments mark the latest back-and-forth between Washington and Tehran since the two sides announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Since then, they have publicly squabbled over the terms of the agreement, alternately closing and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports were transported through this strait.

According to data intelligence firm Vortexa, at least two fully loaded Iranian oil tankers have sailed out of the Persian Gulf this week, breaking through the U.S. blockade. The company's data also indicates that Iran retains the ability to export oil, with at least 34 Iran-linked oil tankers and gas carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and navigating through the naval blockade.

The British navy said Wednesday that an Iranian patrol boat opened fire on a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, causing "significant damage" to its bridge, though no casualties were reported.

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, criticized President Donald Trump for lacking a clear plan regarding the conflict with Iran. Warren shared her views on 'Balance of Power: Evening Edition'.

Britain and France are convening a two-day summit of military planners from more than 30 countries to discuss how to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have been leading efforts to coordinate a plan to keep the strait open after the war with Iran ends, though they have rejected Trump's request for allies to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the initial announcement of the ceasefire, a round of negotiations took place between the U.S. and Iran, but they ended in failure. U.S. officials stated that Iran was unwilling to accept restrictions on its nuclear program; meanwhile, Iran stated that the U.S. had presented a series of unacceptable demands.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Source: AFP / Getty Images

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Tehran delegation in the first round of talks, stated on Monday that Iran will not "accept negotiations under the shadow of threats."

While the ceasefire extension may soothe investor sentiment in the short term, a durable agreement to end the war remains highly uncertain. The conflict, now in its eighth week, has resulted in thousands of deaths and triggered a global energy crisis, increasing pressure on both sides to find an "exit strategy."

Donald Trump demands that Iran abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and hand over its nuclear materials. Tehran denies any such intentions and refuses to give up its enriched uranium.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said that Trump has, in a way, "painted himself into a corner" because he doesn't actually want to return to military conflict.

"He made a strategic mistake thinking that turning up the volume on the Iranians and pressuring them harder would work," Vatanka said. "That approach doesn't work with this regime. Quiet pressure is often more effective than public pressure."

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