Ark Invest's "Big Ideas 2026" Crypto Chapter: BTC Market Cap Projected to Reach $16 Trillion by 2030

Original Article: 《Big Ideas 2026》

Compiled by: CryptoLeo（@LeoAndCrypto）

Recently, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest released its annual "Big Ideas 2026" report. This year's report focuses on AI, robotics, blockchain, energy storage, and multi-omics (a research methodology and strategy in biology), which ARK refers to as the five major technology platforms. These five platforms will be interdependent and catalytic, promoting accelerated technological convergence to create newer platform functionalities. ARK states that the world is entering an unprecedented cycle of technological investment, where innovation in each technology platform will have far-reaching macroeconomic impacts, and each platform will provide a structural boost to global growth.

The report also briefly touches on quantum computing, addressing concerns like the potential for quantum computers to break Bitcoin. ARK notes that performance improvements in quantum computing have been relatively flat, despite significant investment in its R&D. Google has only doubled its qubit count in over four years. Even with substantial improvements in performance and cost, matching Moore's Law's pace, quantum computing will not be viable for encryption/decryption until the 2040s.

Odaily has compiled the crypto-related content from "Big Ideas 2026". Enjoy~

1. Blockchain and Bitcoin

Once blockchain achieves mass adoption, all funds and contracts will migrate on-chain, with these blockchains capable of verifying digital scarcity and proof of ownership. The financial ecosystem is likely to be reconfigured to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies (including bridges to traditional finance and stablecoins) and smart contracts. These technologies should increase transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory controls, and lower contract execution costs.

As more assets become money-like and as businesses and consumers adapt to new financial infrastructure, digital wallets will become increasingly necessary. As these wallets evolve into AI-powered purchasing agents, they may develop into distribution platforms for digital services.

The chart above shows the Bitcoin price trend throughout 2025 alongside key Bitcoin-related events, from Trump's inauguration speech in early 2025 to the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Vanguard's engagement with Bitcoin ETFs by year-end.

Bitcoin is maturing as an emerging asset class. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies hold 12% of Bitcoin's total supply. In 2025, Bitcoin ETF balances grew by 19.7%, from approximately 1.12 million to about 1.29 million, while holdings by public companies surged 73%, from roughly 598,000 to about 1.09 million. The share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held by ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.

Bitcoin's risk-adjusted annual returns (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) have surpassed the crypto market average over time. For most of 2025, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns exceeded those of most other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Its average annual Sharpe Ratio has also been higher than that of ETH, SOL, and the average of the other nine tokens in CoinDesk's top 10 market cap since the recent cycle low (November 2022), early 2024, and early 2025.

In 2025, Bitcoin's price drawdowns from its all-time highs narrowed, and its volatility decreased as its role as a safe-haven asset strengthened. Looking at 5-year, 3-year, 1-year, and 3-month timeframes, Bitcoin's drawdowns in 2025 were not significant relative to its historical drawdown magnitudes.

With gold prices steadily rising and stablecoin adoption accelerating, two data points changed in ARK's Bitcoin valuation model for 2030: the total addressable market (TAM) for digital gold grew 37% after gold's market cap rose 64.5% in 2025; and the penetration rate for Bitcoin's role as an emerging market safe haven decreased by 80% due to rapid stablecoin adoption in developing nations.

Reference: 《Ark Invest Unveils Bitcoin Valuation Model: BTC to Start at $500,000 per Coin by 2030》

By 2030, the market value of digital assets could reach $28 trillion. The smart contract and pure digital currency markets could grow to $28 trillion by 2030 at an approximate annual growth rate of 61%. ARK believes Bitcoin could capture 70% of this market, with the remainder dominated by ETH, Solana, and others.

Data shows Ethereum remains the blockchain of choice for on-chain players, with assets on Ethereum now exceeding $400 billion. On seven of the eight major blockchains, stablecoins and the top 50 tokens account for about 90% of market value. On blockchains other than Solana, Meme coins have a market share of about 3% or less. On Solana, Meme coins account for about 21%.

According to ARK's forecast, Bitcoin is likely to dominate cryptocurrency market capitalization, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 63% over the next five years, increasing from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030.

By 2030, the market capitalization of smart contract platforms could grow at an annual rate of 54% to reach about $6 trillion, generating approximately $192 billion in annual revenue at an average fee rate of 0.75%.

Two to three L1 smart contract platforms should capture the majority of the market share, with their market capitalization derived from monetary premiums (store of value and reserve asset characteristics) exceeding discounted cash flow valuations.

2. Tokenized Assets

Thanks to the GENIUS Act, financial institutions are reassessing their stablecoin and tokenization strategies. As regulations under the GENIUS Act became clearer, stablecoin activity surged to record highs. Multiple companies and institutions launched their own stablecoins, while BlackRock disclosed plans for an internal tokenization platform. Major corporations and fintech firms like Tether, Circle, and Stripe also launched or supported Layer 1 blockchains optimized for stablecoins.

In December 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion, far surpassing most traditional payment systems:

In December 2025, the 30-day moving average of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume was $3.5 trillion, 2.3 times the combined volume of Visa, PayPal, and remittances.

Circle's stablecoin USDC dominated adjusted transaction volume with a share of about 60%, followed by Tether's USDT at approximately 35%.

In 2025, stablecoin supply grew by about 50%, from $210 billion to $307 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for 61% and 25%, respectively.

Sky Protocol was a stablecoin issuer with a market cap exceeding $10 billion by the end of 2025. Also noteworthy, PayPal's PYUSD market cap grew more than sixfold to $3.4 billion.

Led by U.S. Treasuries and commodities, the tokenized asset market tripled in size to $19 billion in 2025.

In 2025, the market value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) grew 208% to $18.9 billion.

BlackRock's $1.7 billion BUIDL money market fund was one of the largest products, accounting for 20% of the $9 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries;

Tether (XAUT) and Paxos (PAXG) led the tokenized commodities category, growing to $1.8 billion and $1.6 billion respectively, together accounting for 83%;

Public equity tokenization approached $750 million;

RWA could become one of the fastest-growing categories. While decentralized assets constitute the majority of global value, off-chain assets represent the largest growth opportunity for on-chain adoption.

By 2030, the global tokenized asset market could exceed $11 trillion.

Tokenized assets could grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion by 2030, representing about 1.38% of global financial assets.

Although sovereign debt is currently the primary area for tokenization, bank deposits and global public equities are likely to represent a larger share on-chain over the next five years. With regulatory clarity and the development of institutional-grade infrastructure, tokenization is likely to see widespread adoption.

Traditional companies are expanding their on-chain footprint by launching their own infrastructure. For example: Circle (Arc), Coinbase (Base, cbBTC), Kraken (Ink), OKX (X Layer), Robinhood (Robinhood Chain), and Stripe (Tempo) are all launching L1/L2 networks bearing their brand names to support their own products, such as Bitcoin-backed loans, tokenized stocks and ETFs, and stablecoin-based payment channels.

3. DeFi Applications

Value capture in digital assets is shifting from networks to applications. Networks are becoming utility infrastructure, no longer the economic layer, but pushing user economics and profits to the application layer. Led by Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and Pancakeswap, total DeFi application revenue in 2025 hit a record high of approximately $3.8 billion.

One-fifth of the application revenue in 2025 was generated in January, the highest monthly revenue ever. Today, 70 applications and protocols have monthly recurring revenue (MRR) exceeding $1 million.

The asset scale of DeFi and stablecoin issuers is catching up to many fintech companies. The gap in platform assets between traditional fintech platforms and native crypto platforms is narrowing, indicating a convergence between traditional and on-chain infrastructure. DeFi protocols like liquid staking or lending platforms are attracting institutional capital and scaling rapidly.

Each of the top 50 DeFi platforms has a TVL exceeding $1 billion, while each of the top 12 platforms has a TVL over $5 billion. Globally, the most revenue-efficient companies include Hyperliquid, Tether, and pump.fun.

In 2025, Hyperliquid generated over $800 million in annual revenue with a team of no more than 15 people. Perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and Meme coins, as on-chain verticals, have clear product-market fit and can attract users and capital at scale.

On-chain businesses and protocols are redefining productivity, with teams in the double digits driving world-class revenue and profitability.

In the perpetual contracts market, DeFi derivatives, led by Hyperliquid, are taking market share from Binance.

Layer 1 platforms are evolving from revenue-generating networks into monetary assets. Applying a high-growth revenue multiple of 50x to their network revenue indicates that over 90% of Ethereum's market cap is attributable to its role as a monetary asset.

Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, suggesting 90% of its valuation depends on its network utility.

Only a few crypto assets will retain monetary properties as liquid stores of value.

Furthermore, the ARK report also mentions AI. Since the ChatGPT boom, data center system growth has accelerated from 5% annually to 29%. As AI foundation models become a new layer of internet architecture, consumer interaction with applications is decreasing, shifting more towards interaction through AI Agents. This structural shift is intensifying consumers' digital experiences. Consumer adoption of AI is far outpacing their initial adoption of the internet. By 2030, AI Agents are expected to facilitate over $8 trillion in online consumption. The share of AI Agents in digital transactions is projected to increase—from 2% of online spending in 2025 to about 25% by 2030.

By 2030, AI Agents are expected to generate approximately $900 billion in commerce and advertising revenue. As AI agents drive the transformation of the digital economy, AI-mediated consumer revenue will grow at an annual rate of about 105% over the next five years, from around $20 billion currently to about $900 billion by 2030. Lead generation and advertising will drive most of this growth, far exceeding contributions from consumer subscription revenue.

Currently, the infrastructure closest to AI Agent consumption in the crypto industry is the x402 protocol, which also promotes the development of crypto+AI.