Vanguard Group's $7 Billion Entry, Has MSTR Bottomed Out?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

On January 20, MicroStrategy once again disclosed an acquisition of 22,305 bitcoins, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This marks the largest single purchase by MicroStrategy since 2025.

Over the past few months, MicroStrategy's stock price has continued to decline from its high of $457, falling by nearly 200%. Doubts surrounding MicroStrategy have also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism between Bitcoin price volatility and stock price, almost all negative narratives have been revisited. Especially after mNAV fell below 1, bearish voices on MSTR have been incessant.

Amid these doubts, a widely circulated article titled "The Fed vs. The Treasury: The Currency War Behind Bitcoin's Plunge" even likened MicroStrategy to a "Bitcoin central bank," suggesting it is entangled in a power struggle between the traditional financial system (the Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan) and the emerging system (the Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin-collateralized financing). It also accused institutions like JPMorgan of systematically shorting MSTR through tactics like delayed settlements and options market suppression.

Simultaneously, index provider MSCI signaled the potential removal of MSTR from its indices. If this occurs, it could theoretically trigger passive selling of approximately $8.8 billion. MicroStrategy's own calculations also indicate that, in extreme scenarios, it could trigger stock liquidations of $2.8 billion.

Panic seems to be escalating... Just as the market was worried about whether MicroStrategy would "sell Bitcoin" or "be able to refinance again," the company chose to act in the clearest and most powerful way, reaffirming its identity as a staunch Bitcoin believer.

The Bottom Is Not a Price, But a Moment When a Certain Behavior Begins to Appear

In an article titled "With a $1.44 Billion Dividend Reserve Fund in Place, Why Did the Stock Price Plunge 10%? What's the Real Issue with MicroStrategy?" published by Odaily on December 3, it was pointed out: MicroStrategy's highly concentrated asset structure, its reliance on capital market refinancing, and its valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin's price are its inherent genetic makeup. Precisely because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail"; instead, they amplify volatility in a more intense manner. Rapid price declines, in turn, reinforce pessimistic narratives, causing risks to be magnified and repeatedly discussed at the emotional level.

Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is full of negative headlines, it often means that bad news may be getting digested, or has already been digested. This is also why Buffett's saying, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," is so often quoted.

Thus, what is truly worth observing in the market is not whether these bearish factors are valid, but whether, at the moment of extreme sentiment and persistent bad news, there are already "lone warriors" in the market choosing to go long on MSTR?

The answer is: Yes, and there's more than one type.

Vanguard: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene

Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, with assets under management exceeding $12 trillion. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have successively disclosed purchases of MSTR, with a combined increase of approximately $707.5 million.

It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets automatically adjust holdings based on changes in index constituents. In other words, the current buying may stem from passive index tracking requirements.

On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares valued at about $202.5 million. This is a value-oriented index fund focused on large-cap stocks undervalued by the market, with core screening criteria including low P/E ratios, low P/B ratios, and high dividend yields, among other value characteristics.

A similar situation occurred with another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $505 million. The continuous growth of MicroStrategy's market capitalization has made it eligible for inclusion in mid-cap indices, compelling the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weight.

Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely mostly due to index fund tracking behavior rather than active investment. However, it is precisely within this inflow of "opinion-free" capital that a key change is occurring: MSTR is being institutionally integrated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk exposure.

Pension Funds' Exploration: The Signal Behind Small Positions

In the more conservative realm of pension funds, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $3.1 million, accounting for 0.02% of its roughly $16 billion in assets.

This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position is extremely small.

However, LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing retirement assets for over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with total assets of about $15.6 billion. The fund's portfolio is primarily concentrated in large U.S. tech stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Within such a portfolio, the appearance of MSTR could be interpreted as: Indirectly gaining Bitcoin exposure through a publicly listed company structure is being considered by some state-level public funds as a discussable and testable option. Although the scale of LASERS' MSTR holding is small, it represents a cautious and preliminary interest in crypto assets.

When Active Management Funds Choose to Stand on the Other Side

Unlike passive index funds, the choices of actively managed funds are closer to direct judgments on risk and reward.

At the end of Q4 2025, globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million. It also held a large-scale call option position simultaneously.

In the same quarter, Capital International Investors disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares rising from about 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million.

Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy for this quarter was to go long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin trends.

Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, also maintained their Buy ratings on MSTR. For instance, TD Cowen stated that despite short-term yield pressure, related metrics for the fiscal year 2027 are expected to improve as Bitcoin prices recover.

Conclusion

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten proposed a noteworthy perspective: In this cycle, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has absorbed about 75% of the drawdown, thereby allowing Bitcoin itself to avoid experiencing a decline of the same magnitude, as volatility shifted from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's large-scale equity issuance when mNAV was around 1x essentially positioned the company as the ultimate risk absorber. At this valuation level, incoming risks were transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price point, rather than continuing to pressure the spot Bitcoin market, thereby somewhat inhibiting the formation of a bear market.

The significance of this perspective lies in its redefinition of the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage proxy for Bitcoin; within the current market structure, it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that bears, transmits, and releases Bitcoin's volatility. Due to its stock's higher liquidity, mature short-selling mechanisms, and rich options tools, when market risk appetite declines, investors may prefer to express their risk assessment of Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR rather than directly selling spot Bitcoin.

Of course, these institutions and individuals choosing to go long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their very existence is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of a market is often not born after sentiment improves, but at the moment when sentiment remains extreme, yet someone has already chosen to act contrarily.

And observing investor behavior regarding MSTR at this stage is essentially observing how they view Bitcoin's risk, expectations, and position in the cycle.