Odaily Editorial Team Tea Talk (January 7th)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the authors share their immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their peripheral details; they explore investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under validation—these may not be direct wealth codes, but could simply be the questions themselves; they share observations gained from interactions with industry practitioners; and materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to manufacture consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Discussion Group, X Official Account) to exchange ideas, question, and banter together.

Azuma（@azuma_eth）

Introduction: Still learning, still a rookie.

Sharing: This week continues to focus on Polymarket.

1. Many people have noticed the wealth effect in prediction markets. Whether it's insider addresses making millions or arbitrage programs generating consistent profits, the bombardment of information flow makes people increasingly envious. However, once they jump in themselves, they often end up losing money.

Let's briefly discuss the profit and loss distribution on Polymarket. It might not be too surprising that 70% of users are net losers, but many might not imagine that nearly 95% of the profits on Polymarket are earned by just 1.2% of users. Going further, 86% of the profits flow to a mere 0.2% of users. So, don't be too anxious; prediction markets inherently have a more extreme profit-loss structure.

2. Discussed the profit models of prediction markets with colleagues. At least for now, apart from the 0.01% fee charged on US markets and the up to 3% fee introduced yesterday for 15-minute cryptocurrency up/down markets, Polymarket doesn't have other clear revenue channels. So, the conclusion remains consistent with last weekend's article—prediction markets are still in the money-burning mode common in the internet world (Shayne Coplan admitted at the end of last year that Polymarket operates at a loss). Relying on financing advantages and compliance advantages, the leading effects of Polymarket and Kalshi will become more pronounced.

As for future revenue generation, aside from going public or issuing tokens, possible paths include but are not limited to: first, adding fees to more markets; second, issuing a stablecoin to generate interest from idle funds; third, data monetization, such as monetizing high-value prediction data through institutional APIs and data distribution protocols.

Moni（@mich73692）

Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving.

Sharing: The event that has recently captured the attention of the crypto community, and perhaps the world, is likely the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. Maduro was previously a cryptocurrency supporter and launched the "Petro" coin in the country to counter US-imposed economic and financial sanctions. There are rumors that Venezuela may have converted gold to Bitcoin over the years, with a current holding rumored to be as high as 600,000 BTC, though this data hasn't been confirmed on-chain. The crypto market doesn't seem affected by this event. Bitcoin's price has been rising steadily since entering 2026, with a year-to-date return for January exceeding 5%, higher than the historical average January return of 3.92%.

Another noteworthy point this week is that Meme coins have sounded the first horn for the new year's crypto market. PEPE is up over 60% weekly; BONK and FARTCOIN are up over 50% weekly; PENGU and FLOKI are up over 40% weekly; DOGE, SHIB, and PUMP are all up over 20% weekly. The rebound in Meme coins typically signals that investors are willing to take on higher risks again to enter the market. Some analysis suggests altcoins may soon see a rally. Historically, the altcoin that has benefited most from Meme coin frenzies is SOL.

golem（X：@web3_golem）：

Introduction: The whimsical thoughts of golem.

Sharing: 1. Recently still researching prediction markets. Recommending a deep, insightful article buried in the information flow: "From AMM to Order Book: Deciphering Polymarket's Shift in Pricing Mechanisms and the Possibility of Integration with DEXs".

In its early days, Polymarket also used an order mechanism similar to AMM in DeFi. However, because market makers are mathematically guaranteed to lose in this model and transactions require more Gas, Polymarket shifted to its current model of off-chain order book + on-chain settlement.

The arbitrage opportunity we often mention in prediction markets, where "the sum of probabilities is less than 100%," mostly refers to multi-option markets rather than binary "yes or no" event contracts. However, arbitrage opportunities also exist in these simple binary contracts. The principle is as follows:

When the sum of YES + NO prices is greater than $1, e.g., $0.7 + $0.4 = $1.1, arbitrageurs can perform a split operation. Deposit $1 into the contract to mint 1 YES ($0.5) and 1 NO ($0.5), then place sell orders on the order book at "$0.7" and "$0.4" respectively. Once filled, they can secure a profit of "$0.10".

When the sum of YES + NO prices is less than $1, e.g., $0.6 + $0.3 = $0.9, arbitrageurs can perform a merge operation. Buy YES and NO shares on the order book at "$0.6" and "$0.3" respectively, then combine them and redeem "$1" from the contract, securing a profit of "$0.1".

Wenser（@wenser2010）

Introduction: Tea-serving junior, crypto bystander, media observer.

Sharing: 1. US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and Japanese/Korean stocks have all seen a broad rally after the New Year, once again indicating strong confidence in the capital markets for 2026. Prices for gold and silver have also seen significant recovery. Currently, it seems the primary wealth creation effect in 2026 is: Stocks > Precious Metals > Cryptocurrency. My irresponsible personal prediction: the peak for gold is around 4900-5100; the peak for silver is around 90-105. For reference only, not investment advice.

2. The rapid advancement of AI has driven a surge in storage and memory-related assets. Beyond stock market tickers, the price of simple RAM modules in the market has also risen. Yesterday, I even saw news mentioning "a hundred RAM sticks comparable to an apartment in Shanghai; a single 256G DDR5 RAM module breaking 40,000 yuan." Combined with the potential price increases for phones and computers this year due to AI-driven chip price hikes, and considering the many people in my social circle recently attending the US CES electronics show and news like xAI completing a $20 billion funding round, it feels like the AI bubble can last at least another 3-5 years. Therefore, AI-related Memes and projects deserve attention, such as SENT.

3. Started taking small long positions on some Chinese concept stocks on MSX.com (formerly MyStonks), including XPeng Motors (new product launch), Baidu (Kunlun chip spin-off listing), Huazhu (established listed company in the hotel/travel industry). Also, according to last week's "Crypto-Stock Barometer" content, for DAT companies, only focus on leaders; Strategy and Bitmine can be taken long in small amounts. Observing Trump's Fed Chair nomination in mid-January and end of January. The strategy is still betting on rebounds > long-term value investment. Mining companies are not recommended for purchase due to increasing difficulty in screening.