Stable will be TGE tonight. Will the market still buy into the narrative of stablecoin public chains?

Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

The Stable mainnet will officially launch at 21:00 Beijing time on December 8th. As a Layer 1 blockchain supported by Bitfinex and Tether, Stable focuses on stablecoin infrastructure. Its core design uses USDT as the native gas fee, enabling sub-second settlement and gas-free peer-to-peer transfers. As of press time, Bitget, Backpack, and Bybit have announced the listing of STABLE spot trading. However, Binance, Coinbase, and the Korean exchange have not yet announced the listing of STABLE spot trading.

Total supply 100 billion, no gas fees charged on the tokens.

The project team released a white paper and details of the tokenomics prior to the mainnet launch. Its native token, STABLE, has a fixed total supply of 100 billion. All transfers, payments, and transactions on the Stable network are settled in USDT. STABLE does not charge gas fees; instead, it serves as an incentive mechanism between developers and ecosystem participants. The STABLE token allocation is as follows: a Genesis Distribution of 10% of the total supply supports initial liquidity, community activation, ecosystem activities, and strategic distribution efforts. This Genesis Distribution portion will be fully unlocked upon mainnet launch.

Ecosystem and community account for 40% of the total supply, allocated to developer funding, liquidity programs, partnerships, community initiatives, and ecosystem development; teams account for 25% of the total supply, allocated to founding teams, engineers, researchers, and contributors; and investors and advisors account for 25% of the total supply, allocated to strategic investors and advisors who support network development, infrastructure building, and promotion.

The team and investor shares have a one-year clamp period, meaning zero unlocking for the first 12 months, followed by linear unlocking. The ecosystem and community fund shares unlock 8% from launch, with the remainder gradually released through linear vesting to incentivize developer, partner, and user growth.

Stable employs a DPoS (Delegated Proof-of-Stake) model through its StableBFT consensus protocol. This design supports high-throughput settlement while maintaining the economic security characteristics required for global payment networks. Staking STABLE tokens is the mechanism by which validators and delegators participate in consensus and earn rewards. The primary roles of the STABLE token are governance and staking: holders can stake tokens to become validators, participate in network security maintenance, and influence protocol upgrades through DAO voting, such as adjusting transaction fees or introducing new stablecoin support.

Furthermore, STABLE can be used for ecosystem incentives, such as liquidity mining or cross-chain bridging rewards. The project team claims that this decoupled design can attract institutional funding because USDT's stability is far superior to that of volatile governance tokens.

Pre-deposit disputes: insider trading, KYC lag

Like Plasma, Stable also opened deposits twice before the mainnet launch. The first phase of pre-deposits began at the end of October, with a cap of $825 million, but it was filled within minutes of the announcement. The community questioned whether some players were engaging in insider trading. The top-ranked wallet deposited hundreds of millions of USDT 23 minutes before the deposits were opened.

The project team did not respond directly and launched the second phase of the pre-deposit activity on November 6, with a maximum of $500 million.

However, Stable underestimated the market's enthusiasm for deposits. The moment the second phase opened, a massive influx of traffic caused its website to slow down and lag. Therefore, after Stable updated its rules, users can deposit through the Hourglass frontend or directly on-chain; the deposit function is reopened for 24 hours, with a maximum deposit of $1 million per wallet and a minimum deposit of $1,000.

The final second phase saw total deposits of approximately $1.8 billion, with about 26,000 wallets participating.

The review time ranges from a few days to a week, and some users in the community have complained about system lag or repeated requests for additional materials.

The probability of a 2 billion FDV is over 85%.

In late July of this year, Stable announced the completion of a $28 million seed round of financing, led by Bitfinex and Hack VC, bringing its market valuation to around $300 million.

In comparison, Plasma's market capitalization is currently $330 million, and its FDV is $1.675 billion.

Some optimists believe that the stablecoin narrative, Bitfinex's endorsement, and Plasma's initial rise followed by a fall suggest continued popularity and potential for price increases in the near term. However, pessimistic voices prevail: gas payments are not stable and have limited utility, especially given the current bear market and tightening liquidity, which could lead to a rapid price drop.

According to Polymarket data, there is an 85% probability that the FDV will exceed $2 billion on its first day of listing. Based on a conservative estimate of $2 billion, the STABLE token price would be $0.02.

In the perpetual contract market, according to Bitget data, STABLE/USDT is currently priced at $0.032, which means its FDV is expected to rise to around $3 billion.

Stable's first phase of pre-deposits reached $825 million, and the second phase actually contributed over $1.1 billion, but after proportional allocation, only $500 million actually entered the pool. The total pre-deposits amounted to $1.325 billion. Token economics disclosed an initial allocation of 10% (used for pre-deposit incentives, trading platform activities, initial on-chain liquidity, etc.). Assuming Stable's final airdrop to pre-deposits is 3%-7%, based on a pre-market price of $0.032, the corresponding return is approximately 7% to 16.9%, meaning that every $10,000 deposit corresponds to $700 to $1,690.

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