R2 Macro Outlook: Why the Next Round of Market Gains Belongs to Real Returns

The global financial market is entering a critical turning point.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path is becoming clearer, global liquidity is recovering, demand for stablecoins continues to grow, and users, wallets, and exchanges are rethinking how to provide more robust, transparent, and sustainable returns for their funds.

These phenomena all point to the same trend: real-world returns are becoming one of the most certain and long-term meaningful tracks in the next round of the crypto market.

This article will start with the macro environment and market structure to explain the reasons behind this trend and the role of R2 in it.

I. Interest rate cycle reversal: Global funds seek new, stable anchorages.

Over the past two years, the global economy has experienced the tightest monetary environment in decades. High interest rates have pushed up borrowing costs, suppressed risky assets, and led to a significant decline in global liquidity.

However, recent economic data has begun to show signs of weakness, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.

Many people mistakenly believe that interest rate cuts mean lower returns, thus reducing their focus on real-yield assets. But the opposite is true. An era of interest rate cuts means that stable returns will become even scarcer.

When bank deposit rates, money market fund yields, and exchange and DeFi average rates (APRs) all decline simultaneously, the market demand for "stable, transparent, sustainable, and liquid" yield instruments will actually increase further. Yields from real-world assets, such as government bonds and institutional credit, perfectly meet this demand.

II. Stablecoins are naturally linked to the demand for real returns.

Interest rate cut cycles are typically accompanied by a repricing of dollar-denominated assets. Global funds are reallocated to dollar-denominated products, leading to an expansion of the stablecoin market, and the on-chain circulation of USDT and USDC often increases.

As stablecoins see an increasing number of use cases, wallets and exchanges will place greater emphasis on Earn-like products. Ultimately, all funds entering the market need a safe place to store them and earn returns.

During periods of rising interest rates, users can obtain higher returns through lending agreements or CEX Earn. However, during periods of declining interest rates, these returns typically shrink rapidly. Therefore, more and more users are seeking new sources of income that meet the following characteristics:

Directly linked to US dollar assets

The source is authentic and transparent.

The risk structure is simple and controllable.

You can quit at any time

Not dependent on market sentiment or speculative behavior

This is why Tokenized T-Bills, Tokenized Credit, on-chain money market funds, and the RWA yield layer have become some of the fastest-growing sectors in the past year.

III. The Importance of Maintaining Stable Positions Increases Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties

The global geopolitical situation remains complex, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East, the Venezuelan crisis, the restructuring of global supply chains, and election years in many countries. These uncertainties are unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

Therefore, investors and institutions generally adopt a more balanced asset allocation approach, splitting their portfolios into high-volatility positions and stable positions.

High volatility positions may include BTC, ETH, AI, L2, or high-beta sectors; while stable positions rely more on dollar-denominated, low-volatility products backed by real assets and with sustainable returns.

R2 is building the infrastructure upon which this type of stable position relies.

IV. R2's Role: Making Real Revenue Simple, Transparent, and Composable

The underlying structure of real-world returns is extremely complex, including asset managers, subscription and redemption cycles, wholesale quotas, compliance requirements, liquidation structures, and liquidity management. Ordinary users find these processes difficult to manage, and wallets and exchanges also struggle to integrate them individually.

R2's mission is to abstract and on-chain all of this, transforming real-world asset returns into:

Can be accessed directly on the chain

Real-time, transparent, verifiable, and traceable

Can be combined with DeFi

Embedd in Exchanges and Wallets Earn Products

Cross-chain deployment is possible

Revenue is automatically distributed

For users, the process is simplified to one action: deposit USDC and automatically receive real returns.

Complexity is handled uniformly by R2, and benefits are presented in a transparent on-chain manner.

V. Why the next six to twelve months will be an acceleration phase for Real Yield

The future acceleration will come from three simultaneous structural trends.

First, expectations of declining interest rates have made stable returns scarce. In an environment of overall declining returns, assets that can still provide a real return of four to six percentage points have become "high-quality assets" in the market.

Secondly, the expansion of stablecoin market capitalization has elevated the strategic importance of Earn products. The more users and funds enter the crypto ecosystem, the stronger the demand for stable returns becomes. R2 acts as the underlying yield provider in this structure.

Finally, wallets and exchanges are actively vying for access to real-world returns. Providing transparent, secure, and sustainable returns in the long term requires access to infrastructure backed by real assets, which is precisely R2's positioning.

Conclusion: Real returns will become the next layer of infrastructure in the crypto world.

In highly volatile markets, products that can survive across cycles often possess the following characteristics:

Linked to the real economy

The risk structure is clear and controllable.

Returns do not depend on market fluctuations

Able to operate stably during bull and bear cycles

R2 believes that real yields will become the infrastructure of the next market cycle, just as stablecoins became the infrastructure in the previous cycle.

R2's vision is to enable global users, wallets, exchanges, and institutions to access real-world earnings in the simplest and most transparent way, making earnings an underlying capability on the chain and driving the entire crypto ecosystem into a more mature and stable stage.