Original author: Maelstrom

Original translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid has enjoyed a period of remarkable growth—its ecosystem flourished, trading volume reached record highs, and the USDH bidding war became one of the most watched events in the history of the cryptocurrency world. But beneath this crown hangs a sword of Damocles: HYPE is about to face its first true test.

Starting November 29th, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked over a 24-month period. At $50 per token, the total value of the tokens unlocked by the team is $11.9 billion, equivalent to nearly $500 million in nominal value entering the market each month.

The problem? The current buyback volume can only absorb about 17% of the unlocked tokens, which means that there will be an excess supply of $410 million per month. Has the market fully digested the impact of such a large unlocking volume?

Research support: @lukas_rppt

Think about it this way: if you were a Hyperliquid developer, you’d put in years of hard work, and now a life-changing token was about to be unlocked, and you could cash it out with just one click - what would you choose?

Can DAT turn the tide?

Sonnet, one of the largest decentralized autonomous teams/funds (DATs) in crypto history, is expected to be deployed in Q4 2025. The project has raised approximately $583 million in HYPE tokens and $305 million in cash. However, even when Sonnet's funding is combined with that of other smaller HYPE DATs, it still represents a fraction of the upcoming HYPE token unlocks.

When Sharks Smell Blood

In the cryptocurrency industry, seizing an early lead doesn't guarantee an unchallenged exit. The market is like a battlefield, and historical data shows that most cryptocurrency products have a short lifespan—successful ones always attract the attention of numerous predators. Competition is intensifying: pressure from top-tier exchanges and new entrants like Lighter.xyz (a Maelstrom portfolio company) are also on the rise. It's probably no coincidence that Changpeng Zhao launched Aster two months before the HYPE unlock.

The game is over!