Original author: BitMEX

It's not the memes, it's the data that speaks for itself. We believe an early copycat season is underway, and the reason is simple:

➡️Market structure: TOTAL3 (total market capitalization of altcoins excluding BTC/ETH) has stabilized relative to the two major mainstream currencies; even without a large-volume breakthrough of BTC/ETH, the market breadth is also expanding.

➡️Leading direction: SOL/ETH upward, moderate funding rates, and few forced liquidations - real buying, not a short squeeze .

➡️Catalysts : The US government is promoting blockchain applications, the Department of Commerce is putting official data such as GDP and PCE on the chain (via Chainlink/Pyth), and fundamentals such as the periodic revaluation of platform coins are bringing "off-market" funds back to the market.

➡️ ETF funding: ETFs are still seeing net inflows but the market has cooled significantly ; the market capitalization/net asset value (m/NAV) ratio of ETH-related DATs (“coin stocks”) is relatively low → the attractiveness of additional issuances has declined, which may leave more room for copycats .

Signal 1 | Market structure and the resilience of TOTAL3

The past five days' performance more closely resembles the start of altcoin season than a "mainstream-only" rotation. TOTAL3 did not hit new lows amidst the volatility of BTC and ETH. Derivatives remained orderly, with near-neutral funding rates and limited passive liquidations—pointing to real demand driven by spot trading . For traders, the key takeaway is clear: even without waiting for BTC/ETH to reach new highs, breadth can still be achieved; choosing altcoins in paired trading offers better value.

Signal 2 | SOL outperforms ETH and begins rotation

The upward trend in SOL/ETH, coupled with stable funding rates and no clear signs of a short squeeze, indicates genuine buying from active allocations . Historically, this has often preceded pair rotations in highly liquid mid-cap and functional sectors, while also providing a lower-beta expression: long SOL / short ETH .

Signal 3: Mainstream currencies are stable but not trending

Source: https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/

The fundamentals of mainstream currencies remain positive, but the marginal momentum of ETH and BTC is declining: there is support for pullbacks, but there is a lack of upward momentum, making it difficult to directly push new highs.

Taking Ethereum token stocks as an example, m/NAV ratios are often between 1.0 and 1.1x, underperforming spot ETH and making it difficult to sustain the "increase issuance + passive spot buying" cycle. Our assessment is that with strong mainstream bottom-fishing activity and weak rallies, it's more reasonable to shift marginal risk to altcoins driven by events.

Signal 4: Practical blockchain applications are advancing

There are hard catalysts on both the policy and infrastructure ends: the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will put official series such as real GDP and PCE on the chain (via Chainlink, Pyth, covering Arbitrum, Avalanche, Base, etc.). The authoritative and machine-readable data opens up new scenarios for data-driven DeFi, tokenized risk control, and event markets.

At the same time, blockchain-based applications have also gained recognition and adoption from mainstream institutions. Numerai (an AI-driven hedge fund incentivized by $NMR) received a $500 million strategic capacity commitment from JPMorgan Asset Management .

Platform-denominated coins have seen periodic gains: OKB saw a boost from adjustments to its token model, while CRO garnered attention due to news like investments from the Trump Family Foundation. None of these developments relied on new highs in the BTC/ETH ratio —a typical characteristic of the early stages of the altcoin season .

Conclusion | Transaction Framework

Current picture: The mainstream is orderly, ETF net inflows are cooling, DAT premiums are thin, and hard catalysts are bringing funds downstream.

Strategically, we will continue to prioritize pairing and news:

Core positions: Long SOL / Short ETH ; Watch for rising new coins

● Satellite positions: Using event catalysts as anchors, allocate news-driven altcoins in batches upon callbacks ; until the capital flow, funding rate or key proxy indicators clearly indicate a style switch .