Key Takeaways

• The dates that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility are: August 1 (U.S. non-farm payroll data), August 12 (U.S. CPI), August 21-23 (Jackson Hole Annual Meeting), and August 29 (core PCE and second quarter GDP).
• August 12 is the expiration date of the Sino-US tariff truce, which may influence market risk appetite and the flow of stablecoin funds.
• Chinese data and PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) released in the middle of the month usually determine risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region and are important signals for trading BTC and ETH.
• On the day of a key event, use one-cancels-the-other (OCO) orders for BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT futures to capture volatility while avoiding guessing the direction.
• Pay attention to on-chain signals: stablecoin minting and destruction, BTC pledge inflow, ETH pledge changes, and capture institutional layout trends at any time.

As August 2025 approaches, global markets are at a critical juncture. Although US inflation has fallen from its peak, it remains above target, and the Federal Reserve remains vigilant.

At the same time, global growth rates are clearly differentiated: Europe's growth has stagnated and its recovery has been weak; China's recovery process has lagged behind; while India and other emerging markets are ahead.

In this context, Bitcoin and Ethereum play a dual role.

They rise and fall with risk appetite—they rise when investors chase high returns, then fall back to safe-haven properties when global risk events occur. On the other hand, with real interest rates remaining low for a long time and central banks repeatedly weighing the timing of rate hikes and cuts, they are increasingly being viewed as "digital gold."

August is a particularly busy month. US employment and inflation data at the beginning and end of the month will influence the Federal Reserve's policy expectations; Chinese data and PMIs in the middle of the month will test the resilience of the global economy; and the Jackson Hole symposium in late August will provide a crucial indicator of the Fed's future direction.

Coupled with the geopolitical risk fluctuations brought about by the expiration of the Sino-US tariff truce , traders need a clear timeline to decide when to increase their BTC and ETH long positions, when to use futures to hedge, or when to shift idle funds to staking and income products such as XT Earn .

Let’s review the important schedule for August and prepare for trading.

Table of contents

August Macroeconomic and Policy Overview

August Weekly Economic Calendar Breakdown

Risk Management and Precautions

August Macroeconomic and Policy Overview

Must-see events in August

August 1: US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate ★★★

• What to watch : 147,000 new jobs were created last month, while market expectations were around 102,000.
• Why it matters : Slowing employment increases expectations of rate cuts, typically driving gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum ; conversely, strong data boosts the dollar and yields, triggering a pullback in cryptocurrencies.
• Tips : Pay attention to the open interest and funding rates of BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT futures.

August 12: US CPI YoY (July) ★★★

• What to watch : Inflation was 2.7% last month, unchanged expected
• Why it matters : Data that is in line with expectations will keep the Fed on the sidelines and the market relatively stable; if it is higher than expected, yields and the dollar will rise, leading to selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Tips : Track US Treasury yields, the DXY US Dollar Index, and BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT spot trading volumes.

Early August: US-China tariff truce expires ★★★

• What to watch : 90-day tariff suspension enters final phase
• Why it matters : If the truce is extended, market risk appetite will recover and cryptocurrencies will benefit; if the truce ends, funds will tend to flow into stablecoins for safe havens.
• Operational tips : Monitor USDC minting and redemption volume, changes in the US dollar index, and the depth of the BTC/USDT order book.

August 21–23: Jackson Hole Annual Meeting ★★★

• What to watch : Federal Reserve Chairman delivers important speech
• Why it matters : Dovish rhetoric can trigger a new rally in BTC and ETH ; hawkish signals often lead to immediate sell-offs.
• Operational tips : Pay attention to the price of federal funds futures, the probability of expected Fed interest rates on CME, and the capital flow of BTC and ETH ETFs

August 29: Core PCE YoY & Q2 GDP Second Estimate ★★★

• What to watch : Core PCE around 2.3% vs. 2.5% expected; GDP around -0.5% vs. 2.5% expected
• Why it matters : If the economy recovers but inflation remains stubborn, interest rate cuts could be delayed, boosting BTC 's safe-haven value. If PCE unexpectedly weakens, it could reignite cryptocurrency's upward momentum.
• Operational tips : Pay close attention to the changes in the size of Bitcoin ETF managed assets and the price trend of BTC/USDT

August Weekly Economic Calendar Breakdown

Week 1: August 1–7

August 1st will see two major data releases. US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by approximately 102,000 in July, down from 147,000 in June. If job growth slows, the market will increase bets on interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will tend to rise in response. If the data is unexpectedly strong, the US dollar and Treasury yields will rise, while BTC and ETH may fall. The Eurozone flash CPI will also be released that day. A steady 2% annual inflation rate typically keeps the ECB on hold, potentially widening the ranges of BTC/EUR and ETH/EUR.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

The Bank of England's meeting on August 7th is attracting much attention, with the market generally expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut; interest rate cuts usually weaken the pound.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

Operation Tips

• Trading volume is usually low during US holidays, so it is recommended to widen the stop-loss range to avoid being wiped out by flash market fluctuations.
• Pay attention to changes in open futures contracts to identify whether large investors choose to increase their positions or exit.
• Closely monitor the depth of the Euro-denominated buy and sell orders to capture sudden changes in BTC/EUR demand.

Week 2: August 8–14

This week was relatively quiet, but still worth watching. The UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP data on August 14th. If it shows a contraction or is significantly below expectations, it will tend to dampen global risk appetite, creating an opportunity to buy BTC and ETH .

Image Credit: Trading Economics

Earlier this week, traders need to pay attention to the performance of the Asia-Pacific market, especially to see whether there are any policy signals from China, which will lay the groundwork for the official release of industrial output and retail data next week.

Operation Tips

• If UK GDP unexpectedly weakens, look for dip buying opportunities in the ETH/USDT spot market.
• Track BTC/USDT futures trading volume in the Asia-Pacific region to understand shifts in regional sentiment.

Week 3: August 15–21

This week is packed with data, which will be crucial for market trends. If the US CPI (2.7% year-on-year) on August 12th is in line with expectations, it will generally support cryptocurrency gains; if it is higher than expected, BTC and ETH tend to pull back quickly.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

On August 14th, China will release its July retail and industrial output figures. If these figures exceed expectations, altcoins and mining-related tokens in the Asia-Pacific market could see a boost. Around August 20th, if the People's Bank of China cuts interest rates or provides other liquidity support, futures and spot trading on local exchanges could see a significant recovery.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

On August 21st, the US, Europe, and the UK will release Flash PMI data. If manufacturing activity continues to fall below the boom-bust line, this tends to increase risk appetite in the crypto market. If service sector data significantly outperforms expectations, this could temporarily dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Operation Tips

• Build positions in BTC and ETH in batches before the US CPI, and moderately reduce leverage to prevent risks.
• Set stop-loss orders on ETH/USDT futures and BTC/USDT futures to capitalize on volatility without predicting the direction.
• Pay attention to changes in the order books of local exchanges after the release of Chinese policy signals to capture the initial market movements.

Week 4: August 22–28

The Jackson Hole symposium will take place from August 21st to 23rd, and the Fed Chairman's speech will be a market bellwether. Dovish comments often trigger rallies in Bitcoin and Ethereum , while hawkish warnings can lead to rapid declines.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

That same week, the ECB will also release data on the broad money supply, M3. If M3 growth accelerates, it will help boost inflation expectations, which will benefit crypto assets. A slower growth rate could exacerbate market concerns about an economic slowdown and suppress risky assets.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

Operation Tips

• During Jackson Hole, pay attention to the federal funds rate futures and ETF fund flows to determine the real demand of institutions for BTC and ETH.
• Track the minting and destruction of stablecoins, and understand how liquidity behaves following changes in the Eurozone’s money supply.

Week 5: August 29–31

Month-end periods are often the most volatile. On August 29th, the Federal Reserve Chairman delivered another speech, followed by the release of the second-quarter GDP estimate and core PCE inflation data. If economic growth recovers while inflation remains stubborn, this could further delay expectations for rate cuts and enhance Bitcoin 's macro hedge properties. If PCE unexpectedly weakens, it could reignite upward momentum in cryptocurrencies.

Image Credit: Trading Economics

Operation Tips

• Appropriately reduce leverage or switch to a cross-period spread strategy to smooth out month-end fluctuations.
• After the Fed’s speech, closely track changes in the asset size of Bitcoin ETFs to confirm the inflow of institutional funds.

Risk Management and Precautions

Beware of false breakouts

• It's common to buy on rumors of major events and sell on the actual data release. When Bitcoin or Ethereum breaks through key price levels, it's recommended to wait for confirmation from the daily close before adding to your position.

Prevent flash crashes

• Big headlines can sometimes trigger flash sales, especially for smaller, leveraged cryptocurrencies. You can pause trading immediately after the announcement or set a more generous stop-loss for these tokens.

Pay attention to slippage and spreads

• Market liquidity can dry up around holidays or policy announcements. It's recommended to split large BTC or ETH transactions into multiple transactions or conduct them over-the-counter (OTC) transactions to reduce slippage costs.

Pay attention to the "bottleneck" of stablecoins

• Regulatory changes may slow stablecoin redemptions. It is recommended to reserve a portion of funds in non-algorithmic USD assets to prevent delays in withdrawing funds in the event of a sudden shortage of stablecoin liquidity.

Frequently Asked Questions about the August Economic Calendar

1. Which August events were most critical for the crypto market?

The US non-farm payroll report on August 1, the US CPI report on August 12, the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting speech on August 21-23, and the core PCE and second-quarter GDP second estimate on August 29. These announcements tend to trigger the biggest fluctuations in BTC and ETH .

2. How to prepare before the release of major data?

It's recommended to build positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum in batches a few days in advance, then reduce leverage before the data is released. If on-chain liquidity weakens, idle funds can be invested in yield products such as XT Earn .

3. What ordering methods are suitable for launch day?

One Order Cancels Another (OCO) and buy/sell stop-loss orders are most useful in the BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT futures markets, allowing you to capture market trends without predicting the direction.

4. How to distinguish true from false breakthroughs?

A true trend is usually accompanied by large trading volume. Whether it is spot or futures, if the price rise or fall lacks trading volume support, it is likely to be a short-term false breakout.

5. Do I need to adjust my staking strategy during periods of significant volatility?

Yes. Major events can impact staking yields and liquidity. It is crucial to dynamically adjust the Bitcoin and Ethereum staking ratios based on on-chain staking inflows.