Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again fulfilled the curse of a sharp drop every time a conference comes true.
Bitcoin once fell below $105,000 this morning, and the lowest price was $104,600. Ethereum also fell from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The altcoin market generally experienced a correction, and some altcoins such as BERA even hit a record low.
In the contract market, according to Coinglass data, the entire network had a liquidation of US$330 million in the past hour, of which long positions were liquidated for US$321 million and short positions were liquidated for US$7.89 million.
In the macro market, COIN and MSTR, two crypto stocks in the U.S. stock market, both fell after the market. Regarding the Feds interest rate cut, the Feds Daly said on Thursday that although policymakers may still cut interest rates twice this year, interest rates should remain stable for now to ensure that inflation can reach the Feds 2% target. Daly emphasized that as long as inflation is above target and there is uncertainty, inflation will become a focus because the labor market is in a solid state. In addition, the U.S. Trade Courts ruling on Wednesday to block Trumps tariff measures was overturned by the Court of Appeal on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policy, which many companies and the Federal Reserve are uneasy about.
Is this a healthy short-term correction, or is it about to enter a long-term consolidation and shock? Lets listen to the market views of experts and analysts.
Placeholder Partner: A slight market correction does not mean the end of the market, and the risk structure remains good
Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, said on social media, Dont mistake a small pullback for the end of the market. The overall risk/reward structure is still good.
Matrixport: Contract data shows traders may be closing positions to take profits
According to the latest report released by Matrixport (analyst is Markus Thielen of 10x Research), futures open interest has risen sharply since the low point in April. Although Solana has taken a back seat due to the cooling of the meme coin and Pump.fun craze, Bitcoins open interest has seen a significant increase. This surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially after Trumps recent tariff policy reversal. Bitcoin continues to play the dual role of risk appetite and safe haven, and increasingly fits the narrative of digital gold.
However, open interest seems to be leveling off at the moment, which could confirm our view that traders are starting to book profits and plan to re-enter the market at lower levels.
Bitfinex report: Bitcoin enters a healthy consolidation phase, short-term holders taking profits may trigger selling pressure
Bitfinex Alpha reported on May 26 that after hitting an all-time high in January, Bitcoin experienced a 32% correction, but has since rebounded strongly by more than 50%, hitting a new high of $111,880, and has now entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, soaring spot market participation, and positive net realized capital growth have driven structural buying in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a decline in macro risk appetite, such as rumors that the United States may impose a 50% tariff on European imports, Bitcoin remains strong - there has been no significant decline in the process of deleveraging and profit-taking.
This resilience is drawing attention to Bitcoin’s evolution into a “macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset” whose trading behavior is now more related to global liquidity trends than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan’s Metaplanet’s $104 million increase in Bitcoin holdings and Michigan’s proposed crypto-friendly legislation further validate the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets.
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holder cost base of around $95,000 will be key. Short-term holders have realized profits of over $11.4 billion over the past month, so there may be some selling pressure in the short term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the spot market all indicate that the market is maturing and further gains may follow once the macro environment clears up. At present, the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoins breakout is a stage top or a prelude to a stronger rally in Q3.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum price is expected to double to $5,000 this year
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that the price of Ethereum is expected to reach $4,000-5,000 this year. Hayes believes that Ethereum is currently the least popular first-layer public chain, but in the period of market cycle transition, this may be an investment opportunity.
CryptoQuant analyst: BTC short-term holders have realized profits at a local high, but have not yet reached the peak level of the previous bull market
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the social platform that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average), an indicator that measures the average realized profit and loss of short-term investors when spending tokens on the chain, has recently hit a local high, indicating that short-term holders have realized a significant increase in profits.
Despite this, demand for the token remains strong, unaffected by the current uptrend. The indicator has yet to reach the frenetic levels seen at previous important price highs.
