BTC has completed its fourth halving in history. How do various institutions predict the future market conditions?
Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nanzhi
Editor: Qin Xiaofeng
On April 20, Beijing time, Bitcoin ushered in the fourth halving in history, and the block reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Based on the current price of $65,000, it is expected that the halving will reduce the selling pressure by $10 billion per year, thereby increasing the price of BTC.
However, in the past week, due to changes in the international situation and the early digestion of the halving expectations, the BTC price has experienced a sharp correction, falling below $60,000 at one point. This has also added more uncertainty to the future trend of BTC.
What predictions do various institutions and researchers make about the market after the halving? Odaily Planet Daily will summarize their views and the logic behind them in this article.
Bullish
CZ: Within a year after the halving, the BTC price will hit record highs many times.
CZ said in a post that Bitcoin halving is different from stock splits, and that people asking such questions show that we are still in the early stages. He then attached a picture to illustrate his views on what might happen before and after the Bitcoin halving node in 2023 and said that he was happy about the halving. Based on the experience of the previous three halving events, CZ judged:
1) There were many different opinions a few months before the halving;
2) The price will not double overnight after halving;
3) Within one year after the halving, the BTC price will hit record highs many times.
Su Zhu: Extremely bullish in April
Su Zhu, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital , said in a post : “I really don’t understand the reason for being bearish at this time. April is structurally extremely bullish. Bitcoin halving is coming, Ethereum ETF is about to be launched, and ordinary people are waking up from their long slumber. We are still in the early stages.”
SkyBridge Capital CEO: Halving will be a short-term catalyst for growth
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, said that the 10 recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs are “sales machines” and he believes that these products will continue to stimulate the growth of demand for crypto assets among retail and institutional investors. Scaramucci also believes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will be a major catalyst for Bitcoin price increases in the short term, adding that he likes Solana (SOL) very much.
Wintermute: Good news for Bitcoin ecosystem assets
Wintermute’s OTC trading desk said : “There is a large pool of untapped capital in the Bitcoin ecosystem that remains dormant, and there are surprisingly few listed assets that traders can gain exposure to. If capital starts to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, tokens like RUNE, STX, and ORDI could benefit significantly and perform well.”
OKX Web3 Wallet Jason: A new round of bull market starts one year after halving
Jason, head of Bitcoin products at OKX Web3 Wallet, believes that in the short term, Bitcoin prices may experience greater volatility. "Historical data shows that prices may not rise immediately in the early stages of halving, as the market has already made some expected adjustments before the event. However, with the new supply rhythm and market adaptation after the halving, prices may gradually reflect this change in scarcity."
He added that in the long run, halving is often seen as a catalyst for the rise in the value of Bitcoin. As mining rewards decrease, a small amount of new Bitcoin flowing into the market may play a key role in the supply and demand dynamics, supporting price increases. In addition, as cryptocurrencies gradually gain wider acceptance and use, this may also have a positive impact on the long-term trend of Bitcoin. From historical experience, within six months to one year after the halving, BTC is very likely to start a new bull market cycle.
In addition, Jason believes that more attention should be paid to the ecosystem, such as BTC Layer 2 or some new protocols. "Most of the current market liquidity has been consciously or unconsciously transferred to the BTC ecosystem. Coupled with the emergence of Rune, public opinion about Bitcoin halving, and continuous iteration of XRC... these events add up, and it is unreasonable for the BTC ecosystem not to be popular. I think BTC Layer 2 and new protocols will most likely be the focus of the next round of narratives."
Bitget: It will reach a peak of 150,000 US dollars between the end of this year and the middle of next year
Crypto trading platform Bitget believes that based on historical data, halving leads to a reduction in the supply of Bitcoin, and when demand remains stable or increases, it will drive up the price of Bitcoin. This year's market has superimposed the key factor of the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, making the future bull market more certain. Whether it is traders, exchanges, project parties or miners, they will pay special attention to the impact of the event on the market before and after the Bitcoin halving.
“In the short term (1 to 6 months), BTC may experience a monthly correction, but $40,000 may become the low point of this bull market. It is recommended to observe the support levels of 53,000 and 60,000, with a short-term upper limit of $90,000. In the long term (more than 6 months), the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates, market liquidity will be fully released, and BTC may reach a peak of $150,000 between the end of this year and the middle of next year.”
George, founder of AscendEX : Long-term performance after halving usually shows an upward trend
George, founder of AscendEX (formerly BitMax), believes that in the short term, the price of Bitcoin may experience greater fluctuations. In the early stage of halving, the market's expectations for this event may have been partially reflected in the price. After the halving actually occurs, it may be affected by speculative buying and selling in the short term. In addition, short-term prices may also be affected by macroeconomic factors, industry news or technological updates. The geopolitical war situation will also have a certain impact.
From historical data, Bitcoin's long-term performance after halving usually shows an upward trend. In theory, halving leads to a reduction in new supply. If demand remains the same or increases, the price may rise according to the law of supply and demand. However, this also depends on factors such as the overall market environment, technological development, and regulatory policies.
XT.COM: Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 after halving
Crypto platform XT.COM analyzed that, comparing the data of several times, the price of Bitcoin usually starts to rise about a year before the halving event and reaches a peak about a year after the halving event; the fourth halving will occur in April 2024, and the next round of highs will appear in April-May 2025. By using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which is a model based on supply and demand, using the stock (Stock) and flow (Flow) of Bitcoin to calculate the value of Bitcoin, the S2F model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will rise significantly after the halving event in 2024 and reach a level of about US$100,000 in 2025.
Nexo Co-founder: Based on historical halving trends, BTC prices may double within 8 months
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, said that if previous halvings are followed, the price of Bitcoin should double in no more than eight months.
Stronghold Digital Mining: BTC prices will rise sharply in the next two years
Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, said that although the enthusiasm for the Bitcoin halving is somewhat exaggerated, the recent Bitcoin rally is "much more than a temporary fad." With institutional acceptance, Bitcoin is maturing. Bitcoin prices will rise significantly in the next two years.
Neutral
Mango Network: Halving does not mean that prices will soar immediately
Mango Network, a Layer 1 public chain based on the Move language, believes that from the perspective of supply, halving will help to continue to push up the price of BTC assets, but halving does not mean that the price will soar immediately. The oscillating trend after this round of new highs (ATH) is very different from the continuous upward trend after the previous round of new highs. This shows that the short-term coin price will continue to fluctuate, using time to digest the huge locked-in and profit-taking positions, and through a long period of oscillating trends, the average holding cost will be raised to achieve the maximum turnover.
The long-term price trend depends entirely on the depth of this short-term box, the coordination of volume and the degree of indicator repair. In other words, the short-term trend after halving will determine the long-term trend. So far, after this round of BTC new highs, mainstream coins have not followed to create new highs, which shows that the market is still not strong enough. This differentiation trend shows the existence of market differences, and it may also mean that BTC will lead the development of the crypto market with an independent market from now on.
In addition, the background of this round of halving is very different from the past. BTC spot ETF, BRC-20, and Layer 2 have appeared one after another. These new financial tools, protocol standards, and ecological environments are changing the native narrative of BTC. The change of the native narrative will have many potential impacts and development directions, some of which are positive, but also negative, and need to be continuously observed.
CryptoQuant: Halving has no significant impact
A research report released by CryptoQuant pointed out that the supply shock brought about by the Bitcoin halving will not have a huge impact on the Bitcoin price as many investors expected.
Its report states: "The impact of the halving has been weakening as the number of newly issued bitcoins decreases relative to the amount of bitcoins sold by long-term holders." Instead, the "key driver" affecting the price of Bitcoin after this halving will be the increase in demand from investors who hold a large amount of Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant said demand from whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins has grown to “the highest level ever,” up 11% month-on-month.
While Bitcoin halvings reduce supply, there have been several instances between 2021 and 2023 where monthly demand from long-term holders exceeded supply over the same time period. However, the gap between the two is currently much larger than ever before, suggesting that the impact of halvings on Bitcoin price action may not be as strong as in the past amid a persistent monthly supply shortage. Long-term holders are now accumulating about seven times more Bitcoin per month than new Bitcoin is entering the market.
The report states: “Long-term holder balances are increasing by as much as 200,000 bitcoins per month, far exceeding the issuance of approximately 28,000 bitcoins. After the halving, the monthly issuance of bitcoin will be reduced to approximately 14,000 bitcoins.”
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s total issuance has plummeted to just 4% of the total available supply, a significantly smaller percentage than before previous Bitcoin halvings. “Before the first, second, and third halvings, issuance accounted for 69%, 27%, and 10% of the total available Bitcoin supply, respectively,” the report reads.
Marathon CEO: Production cuts will have a small impact on prices
Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon, a US-listed mining company , said : “I think the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has been a huge success, attracting capital into the market and essentially promoting the rise that should have occurred three to six months after the halving.”
He added that the halving event will reduce the supply of Bitcoin by about 450 per day, which may have some small impact on the price. "As a Bitcoin miner, we are very excited about the upcoming halving, and this time the price did not fall before the halving, but rose. So everyone is obviously maximizing this."
Market maker QCP Capital: Will maintain in the range of $64,000 to $73,000
Crypto market maker QCP Capital pointed out in its latest market report that the bearish skew in the ETH risk reversal it highlighted has proven to be an accurate early decline indicator, and said it may be due to its sensitivity to crypto market anxiety, as speculators who are long on altcoins tend to use ETH put options for hedging.
At the macro level, the news that Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel triggered a sell-off of risky assets around the world, with BTC falling below $60,000 and altcoins generally halved. This change caught the market off guard, and the perpetual contract funding rate was once pressed to a negative range below -40%, the peak since the beginning of this year. The negative funding rate also suppressed the forward curve, with the short-end yield falling below 10%. After this decline, BTC once again returned to the center of the tight range of $64,000 to $73,000, and QCP expects it may be difficult to break through this range in the short term.
Deutsche Bank: Bitcoin halving has been partially priced in, and a sharp rebound is unlikely
Deutsche Bank (DB) said in a research report that it expects the Bitcoin reward halving to be partially digested by the market in the next few days, and the price is unlikely to rebound sharply after the halving. The report analyzed that Bitcoin prices are expected to remain high due to market expectations for the approval of future spot Ethereum ETFs, future central bank interest rate cuts, and regulatory changes. In addition, with the surge in Layer 2 solutions and DeFi activities, the practicality of the network has been enhanced, and the prospects for the entire Bitcoin ecosystem and the broader cryptocurrency field have begun to become extremely favorable.
Morph Lianchuang: Bitcoin's "halving" may have been reflected in its price
Azeem Khan, co-founder of the L2 project Morph, said that the price of Bitcoin may have already reflected the impact of the "halving". He believes that since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional capital has been seen to flow in for several months. Even before that, a large amount of liquidity has been seen entering the market without seeing traditional signs of retail users (retail investors) buying. Azeem Khan said that institutions are not stupid and may have bought in advance.
Santiment: The market may bottom out before or shortly after the BTC halving
“Historically, BTC prices have moved in the opposite direction of mass trader expectations,” blockchain analytics platform Santiment said in a market insights article, adding that the market could bottom out before or shortly after the halving.
Data tracked by Santiment shows that the number of mentions of "bull market" or "bull cycle" on crypto social media has been declining since the end of March. At the same time, the number of mentions of "bear market" or "bear cycle" has continued to increase.
Bearish
Arthur Hayes: Be cautious in April, the bull market will begin in May
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in an article that from April 15 to May 1, the annual US tax return (April 15 is the tax deadline) will drain market liquidity, and the Fed's continued balance sheet reduction and Bitcoin's expected halving event on April 20 may lead to short-term overselling, and the market may be extremely weak . However, starting from May 1, as the Fed slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the US Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin .
Hayes suggested that investors should act cautiously in April, but be bold in their deployment after May. He revealed that he has closed positions in tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT to make profits, and transferred the funds to the USDe stablecoin on the Ethena platform for staking to earn income.
Hayes said that he will not trade from now until May 1, and by May he expects to have sufficient funds to establish positions in various crypto assets to prepare for a real bull market.
10x Research: After the halving, there will be $5 billion in miner selling pressure
10x Research said in a post that the cryptocurrency market may face major challenges during the six-month summer calm period as Bitcoin mining companies prepare to sell most of their Bitcoin inventories. These inventories have been carefully built up in the past few months and may disrupt market dynamics.
The typical scenario before the halving (April 20) is that miners hoard BTC, causing an imbalance between supply and demand, and a subsequent increase in the price of Bitcoin. Altcoins, in particular, may bear the brunt of this situation. Bitcoin tends to rise by 32% during halvings. However, according to its calculations, miners may liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. This selling suspense may last for four to six months, which explains why Bitcoin may consolidate sideways in the next few months - as has been the case after past halvings.
JPMorgan analyst: Bitcoin price may not rise after halving
Analysts at JPMorgan said: "Limiting supply sounds like a move to stimulate a bull market, but things are not that simple. BTC is currently in an overbought stage." At the same time, analysts believe that the lack of venture capital funds in the encryption field will also lead to a decline in the value of Bitcoin.
in conclusion
Through the above inventory, we can find that most institutions are still confident about the market after halving, and believe that halving will start a new round of bull market, which is expected to hit $100,000. Of course, there are also institutions and researchers who remain neutral or even pessimistic about the market trend after halving, believing that the halving expectations have been digested in advance and will not bring significant impact. Bearish people, based on the perspective of miners' selling pressure, believe that there will be capital recovery pressure in the short term, which will suppress the price of Bitcoin.
Odaily Planet Daily will continue to update the views of more institutions on future trends.
