Original - Odaily

Author - Nan Zhi

On February 8, Binance New Coin Mining announced the launch of the 46th project Pixels (PIXEL), a social network game based on the Ronin network. Users can invest BNB and FDUSD into the PIXEL mining pool on the Launchpad website after 08:00 (UTC+ 8) on February 9 to obtain PIXEL rewards. PIXEL can be mined for a total of 10 days.

Odaily will review the recent Binance Launchpool revenue in this article and estimate the price of PIXEL tokens based on lending and exchange data.

Original Pixels Game Token Redemption

According to a Binance Pixels research report, the Pixels project has raised $4.8 million through 3 rounds of private token sales, of which 14% of the PIXEL token supply has been sold at unit prices of $0.005, $0.009, and $0.012 respectively. As of February 8, the maximum supply of PIXEL was 5 billion, and the initial circulation after going online was 771,041,667 (accounting for approximately 15.42% of the maximum supply).

Pixels will gradually phase out the in-game token BERRY, and BERRY will be open to exchange with PIXEL. The initial token exchange ratio is 1000 BERRY: 7.6175 PIXEL. Then Pixels announced again that the exchange rate will be reduced by 10% on February 13.

Coingecko data display, the current price of BERRY is 0.00265 USDT, and based on the above exchange ratio, the price of PIXEL can be0.385 USDT。

Launchpool Data Review

The figure below is a review of Launchpool data from Memecoin (MEME) to the latest Altlayer (ALT) period, which only considers the income of the BNB pool. The BNB price in the rate of return is calculated based on the closing price of BNB before starting mining (assuming that between the Launchpool announcement and The price of BNB has been fully speculated before mining starts).

To sum up,The average annualized return of Launchpool in the past 7 periods is 130%, if MEME is not included, the annualized rate of return reaches 148%, which is higher than the USDT financial management of various protocols and exchanges.

Assuming that the annualized rate of return of PIXEL is also 130%, and PIXEL mining lasts for ten days, the absolute rate of return of this Launchpool converted on a daily basis is 130% /365 × 10 = 3.56%.

To achieve a yield of 3.56%, the currency price of PIXEL needs to reach 16, 041, 115 × 319.2 × 3.56% /280, 000, 000 =0.65 USDT。

Forecast based on lending data

Assume that the annualized rate of return of PIXEL should be BNB lending rate + risk-free rate of return, where the BNB lending rate comes from various lending protocols and exchanges, and the risk-free rate of return is the USDT lending rate of the exchange.

This section selects the BNB lending interest rates of Venus, Kinza, Radiant, and Binance Lending, with an average of 93%. The details are shown in the figure below.

Binance USDT financing interest rate is about 12%, OKX is about 38%, and the average is 25%. Then the annualized rate of return of PIXEL is 118%. According to the algorithm in the previous section, the correspondingCoin price 0.591 USDT. Not included in the risk-free rate of returnThe guaranteed currency price is 0.466 USDT。

in conclusion

To sum up, to maintain the average Launchpool yield or make it profitable for borrowers, the price of PIXEL needs to reach a level of about 0.6 USDT. If calculated based on current market expectations and the guaranteed currency price, the bottom-line price is approximately between 0.4 USDT and 0.45 USDT.