SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240124)：BTC反弹回到4W，市场对近期上行空间态度消极
Yesterday (23 JAN) the Bank of Japan maintained the loose monetary policy widely expected by the market, and at the same time lowered its core inflation forecast for this fiscal year from 2.8% to 2.4%. Governor Ueda mentioned that it is possible to achieve the inflation target, and at the same time the labor union requested more With the high salary increase, the central bank will consider ending the negative interest rate policy and made it clear that it will consider raising interest rates in April, causing Japanese government bond yields to rise again. In Europe and the United States, the issuance of European debt hit a new high and the response was good; the market demand for the record-breaking 2-year U.S. Treasury bond auction in the United States was also good, with the issuance price of 4.365% consistent with the screen price and not affected by the upward risk of inflation caused by the recent rebound in oil prices. U.S. bond yields have declined overall. The current two-year/ten-year yields are 4.318%/4.102% respectively. The three major U.S. stock indexes have mixed gains and losses. The Dow closed down 0.25%, and the SP and Nasdaq rose 0.29% respectively. 0.43%.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView
In terms of digital currency, yesterday BTC broke through 4 W under pressure, which caused a little panic. At one time, the short-term implied volatility surface flattened sharply and went up. However, as the price rebounded back to around 4 W, the IV also retreated. All previous gains. In terms of trading, the market has clearly shown its pessimistic attitude towards price increases before the end of February, such as the triangular price difference represented by BTC Short 23 FEB-40000-C vs Long 29 Mar 24-43000-C, and other examples such as BTC 23 FEB 41000 -P vs 36000-P, ETH 23 FEB 2300-P vs 1900-P Long Put Spread; but there are exceptions, the short-term bullish ETH 26 JAN 2450 vs 2600 Long Call Spread has about (single leg) 18000 ETH traded, traded ETH at the time was concentrated around 2200, which was yesterdays local low, and there was also a rare long-term bullish call of 27 DEC 24-3500-C (Size: 10000 ETH).
Source: Deribit (as of 24 JAN 16:00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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