secondary title
About rate hikes and FTX
First of all, the biggest macro-influencing factor in 2022 is interest rate hikes, which will put pressure on global assets including cryptocurrencies. Coupled with events like the FTX crash within the cryptocurrency market, the cryptocurrency market has been greatly affected. hit.
The biggest impact of the FTX incident is the original exchange ecology, which will continue to evolve in the future to solve the problem of trust in centralized exchanges. Including Cobo, institutions in the industry are currently trying to find ways to promote a more transparent and healthier trading ecosystem.
image description
Cobo Loop Alliance Member
In 2019, Cobo was the first to launch a cryptocurrency cross-platform clearing and settlement network - the Loop Alliance, for alliance members (such as exchanges, trading institutions, etc.) to settle transactions instantly under the chain. After the Loop Alliance is upgraded to SuperLoop in the future, it will become an exchange off-site custody and settlement network, allowing trading teams to trade on exchanges while maintaining independent custody of funds.
About DCG
At present, the matter of DCG is currently under observation and will not be further expanded-the expansion mentioned here refers to the situation where hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin assets in Grayscale are forced to be sold. Therefore, from the perspective of the main driving factors of market decline, there is no risk of large-scale possible liquidation.
About Ethereum
The second thing is actually relatively clear. The Ethereum Foundation has announced that the Shanghai upgrade in March will basically come on time. The foundation is sure that even if several other features are put on hold, the Shanghai upgrade must be guaranteed.
From this point of view, Ethereum has injected a boost to the industry. In the past three months, asset management in the entire market has revolved around the crypto market, and repeated staking is a single point. Therefore, the staking liquidity risk that plagued everyone in 2022 can be successfully resolved through the Shanghai upgrade in March.
Looking back at history, the entire Ethereum Foundation is making major strategic decisions. Whether it is 1559, or a merger, or an upgrade in Shanghai, it will generally take the initiative to choose a favorable external macro environment, so March is also a relatively important month. time frame.
Third, we have seen a lot of L2, especially ZK-based L2, and the project parties have expressed their intention to launch the testnet or mainnet in Q3 or Q4 in 2023.
Generally speaking, from the perspective of internal factors in the industry, there will be no major potential risks in the coming year, and there are two other positives, one in March and one in Q4. Therefore, at this level, there are not too many factors driving the decline by events.
about cycle
In addition, we need to note that there are two more certain things, one is that Bitcoin will usher in halving in more than 470 days. If we reproduce the impact of the entire halving cycle in the past ten years, it also means that a new round of market may be born at the end of this year.
The other is that from the perspective of the entire cryptocurrency market cycle, the entire cycle is short-term and long-term. Since March last year, we have entered the bear market stage, and this cycle is basically a little over a year, and it is almost over.
Based on the above analysis of macro and industry factors, looking back at the entire industry in the past year, we have passed the most painful or rapid decline stage in this round of bear market, and now we are in a market that is gradually recovering confidence and looking for new narrative logic , The stage of consolidation.
Looking forward to 2023, with the interest rate hike cycle and these driving factors in the industry, it is expected that there may be a wave of market hotspots in Q2, and there may be another wave starting in Q4 in the second half of the year.
If there is no special and extremely bad black swan event or the deterioration of external macro factors, the bottom of our round of cryptocurrency market may have already appeared, and we expect a large upswing period to appear relatively intensive next year.
A little bit of sharing at the end of the year above, as a greeting on the occasion of the New Year. Finally, I wish the veterans will continue to be firm and happy in 2023!
God fish
The fifth day of the first month of 2023
