The Godfather of Currency 4.2: The number of giant whales has dropped significantly, and Bitcoin is retailing?
News side:
News side:
1. Barry Silbert, the founder and former CEO of Grayscale, tweeted yesterday: "The time for Bitcoin's new high has arrived."
2. Coinbase tweeted today that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced on April 1 that the Form S-1 registration statement regarding the direct issuance of Class A common stock by Coinbase has become effective. Its Class A common stock is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol "COIN" on April 14.
3. According to U.Today news, JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan) stated in a report on Thursday that the decline in Bitcoin volatility will prompt more institutions to adopt Bitcoin. Since the price of this crypto asset is less volatile, professional investors will be more willing to include it as part of their investment portfolio. JPMorgan Chase estimates that if bitcoin can match private sector investment in gold, its long-term value could reach $130,000. But it could take years for the volatility of the two assets to converge. Bitcoin is up 102% so far this year, while gold is down 9%.
4. According to The Block, Ivan Zimin, head of the Financial Technology Department of the Central Bank of Russia, publicly opposed private stablecoins as a means of payment. Stablecoins are an issue affecting the ruble's dominance in Russia, and limits may be on the horizon, he said. “We have already taken the first step in restricting the use of unsafe cryptocurrencies, and we may take the second step, restricting the use of stablecoins in payments,” Zimin said.
5. According to U.Today news, Jay Clayton, former chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said in an interview with CNBC that before he entered the SEC, Bitcoin had been determined not to be a security. Therefore, the SEC's jurisdiction over Bitcoin is fairly indirect. Clayton said that just because bitcoin is not under the SEC's jurisdiction doesn't mean it doesn't need to be regulated. He expects domestic and international cryptocurrency regulations to emerge “directly” and “indirectly.”
Just today, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise to $60,000, the first time since March 19. Ouyi OKEX chief researcher William analyst pointed out that with Tesla's world's largest asset management company Blackstone Group and Norwegian oil giant Akar and other companies investing in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a niche investment product in the past to a digital gold for the public. So far, what the godfather can expect is that if the economy maintains a recovery trend in the second half of this year and the tone of the loose monetary policy of the United States remains unchanged, Then the price of Bitcoin may reach 100,000 US dollars; everyone can wait and see!
And just yesterday, JPMorgan Chase also stated that the decline in the liquidity of Bitcoin will prompt more institutions to be willing to use it as part of their investment. If Bitcoin can be compared to a non-publicly traded gold investment, its long-term value may reach a price of $130,000. Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has risen by 102%, while gold has fallen by 9%. This is enough to show that Bitcoin before the regulation is fully implemented may refresh everyone's perception again.
As the market value of Bitcoin increases, the possibility of a small number of giant whales manipulating prices becomes weaker and weaker, and the popularity of Bitcoin has been attracting more ordinary investors. So the current bitcoin is becoming retail, why does the godfather think so. The first is that JPMorgan Chase recently found that retail investors had purchased more than 187,000 Bitcoins by the end of this quarter, and 205,000 Bitcoins in the fourth quarter of last year after sorting out data from payment providers such as Square and PayPal bitcoins.
In contrast, the capital flows of bitcoin futures investment funds and corporate announcements reveal that institutional investors bought about 173,000 bitcoins in the quarter, and nearly 307,000 bitcoins in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition, the Coinbase premium indicator, which measures the difference between Coinbase’s Bitcoin USD pair and the Binance Exchange’s Bitcoin and USDT pair, turned negative not long ago, and also hinted at weak institutional demand.
The number of giant whales has also undergone significant changes recently. According to reports, the number of giant whales holding at least 1,000 bitcoins has dropped sharply again to the level where the price of bitcoin in 2021 will be in the $20,000 area. Retail investors seem to be surpassing institutions to become the main force behind Bitcoin's rise in the first quarter, so why is this happening?
The first reason is the continuous release of water by the Federal Reserve. According to the data after the US stimulus plan, the US released 242 billion US dollars in stimulus funds in the past week alone. According to the survey, 10% (nearly $40 billion) of the $380 billion in the direct stimulus plan may have been used to buy bitcoin and stocks, and another prediction is that bitcoin will account for the total incremental investment spending 60%; it is estimated that this will add 2%-3% to Bitcoin's current market value of $110 million.
Not only that, the Fed's latest resolution reiterated its loose stance. The dot plot shows that most members expect no interest rate hikes before 2023. Powell also emphasized in his speech that it is important to maintain a loose financial environment. The Fed's dovish stance is beneficial to emerging markets.
However, although the participation of retail investors in Bitcoin is deepening, the participation of institutions cannot be ignored. In addition, according to recent news, Morgan Stanley will launch three bitcoin-related fund investment channels for wealthy customers to meet customer needs. It believes that Bitcoin is suitable for investors who have at least $2 million in assets with strong risk tolerance, and limits Bitcoin investment to within 2.5% of the client's total net asset value. So far, Morgan Stanley has become a large U.S. bank that provides bitcoin fund channels to its wealthy customers. Its asset size is 4 trillion U.S. dollars. These three funds limit the investment threshold, which means that only large customers can invest.
4.2 Market Strategy Layout of the Godfather of Coin Speculation
Bitcoin:
In terms of hourly levels, the pancake bottomed out at 58461.53 in early trading and rebounded, walked out of Sanlianyang, broke through the 60000 first-line barrier, and fell back at 60169.85 when it was under pressure. , At present, it continues to fluctuate above 59000. From a technical point of view, the MACD is in a long-term arrangement, gradually shrinking, the upward trend of the fast and slow lines is slowing down, and the KDJ third line has entered a narrow parallel adjustment, and there is a phenomenon of downward divergence. In the short term, It is expected that there will be a demand for support from the big pie, and it is recommended to look at the back step first when rebounding short orders.
Operation suggestion:
The godfather of currency speculation has been in the currency market for 7 years. From being ignorant at the beginning to becoming familiar with it later, from losing money at the beginning to making money now, from making orders blindly before to investing rationally now, from fighting alone before to now with a team operate. 7 years is just the beginning, what I want to do is 20 years, forever. I firmly believe that those who do everything for 7 years must turn an industry from a public to a professional. The content of this article is exclusively planned and released by the team of senior analysts, the Godfather of Speculation (public account: Godfather of Speculation). If you want to know more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, methods, trading techniques, operating skills, and K-line, you can add it to my learning Communication, I am the godfather of currency speculation, I hope to help you find what you want in the currency circle.
The godfather of currency speculation has been in the currency market for 7 years. From being ignorant at the beginning to becoming familiar with it later, from losing money at the beginning to making money now, from making orders blindly before to investing rationally now, from fighting alone before to now with a team operate. 7 years is just the beginning, what I want to do is 20 years, forever. I firmly believe that those who do everything for 7 years must turn an industry from a public to a professional. The content of this article is exclusively planned and released by the team of senior analysts, the Godfather of Speculation (public account: Godfather of Speculation). If you want to know more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, methods, trading techniques, operating skills, and K-line, you can add it to my learning Communication, I am the godfather of currency speculation, I hope to help you find what you want in the currency circle.
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