In fact, those who read the article carefully should find that filecoin also belongs to the concept of web3.0. Although it stores "junk information" now, it can't stand people with money.

This article may be the number one public enemy of the "black forces" of Fil mining machines and cloud computing power, and it is also possible that the official account will be blocked again.

Here we first introduce the circulation of filecoin:

Filecoin release and circulation

There are two types of Filecoin releases, one is private placement + public placement unlock release; the other is the release of mining output;

The two have one thing in common: lock-up and linear release. However, because private equity participates in different lock-up times, the linear release time is different, and the mining output is uniformly released linearly after 6 months, so In the early days, the number of coins that could be circulated was small.

1) Private placement + public placement release

According to the data of Real Blockchain, there are 4 lock-up periods for Filcoin fundraising, which are 6/12/24/36 months, and there will be no lock during the period, and they will be released linearly.

The fundraising data of FIL in 2017 are as follows:

• 3-year release cycle, a total of 71.582 million FIL

• 2-year release cycle, a total of 10.402 million FIL

• 1-year release cycle, a total of 38.694 million FIL

• June release cycle, a total of 30.184 million FIL

According to this linear calculation, it can be calculated that there are about 355,899 Filcoins unlocked by private placement + public placement every day. Here, the calculation is based on 30 days per month, and there will be certain discrepancies.

By the 15th of next month, that is, after April 15th, all the private placements released in Filecoin's June cycle will be in circulation, that is, the daily release amount will reduce the circulation of 167,688 Fil.

According to the announcement of Filecoin, in addition to the full release of the June period, the foundation’s team and ecological release will reduce about 120,000 Fil a day, that is, on April 16th in the market, there will be 280,000 Fil less in circulation on that day, and then according to it It was announced that production would be reduced by 43.2% every day. After about a month, it would produce 1 Fil a day. The person who wrote this announcement either did not speak English or Chinese. Anyway, the business level was too low.

The normal understanding should be that all the saft in June was released, and then the part released except for the foundation, the team, and the ecology was reduced. The output of a day decreased from 64.8w on April 15, half a year later, by 28w to 36.8w That's all.

But now, in fact, part of the Fil produced on the first day of mining on October 15th has not been released, so the mining output is only 144,150 Fil so far, and the daily mining output after April 15th is The part of 172,980 Fil is a fixed output, because every day, a batch of mining output released for 180 days expires.

Back to the overall situation, what is the current situation of Fil?

The lock-up volume and circulation volume are close to 1:2, and the lock-up volume needs to be pledged and then unlocked. The time for unlocking to return to circulation is 540 days, that is, one and a half years, so in fact, the coins that are pledged for mining are destroyed , After all, the time for mining to pay back is only 5-6 months, and it is still calculated according to the currency price of 20 at that time.

Of course, if calculated according to the current currency price, if the people who pledged before have paid back their capital in about 2 months, if they participate in mining now, if the currency price remains unchanged, they will pay back their capital in about 8 months.

I don’t know if hedging is still useful now. It mainly depends on your views on the value of Fil. At least for now, there seems to be no other than the hype cost.

And the main "protocol laboratory" (ipfs project party) is really rich, not to mention how much money was raised, the key to the entire ecological chain, in addition to mining machine manufacturers, mining pool service providers, protocol laboratories, miners, the entire The protocol laboratories on the ecological chain are all at the top. Its main function is to attract people to enter the market to mine, and it is to stabilize the price.

Here to share other people's logic, and then attack one by one:

1. The landing project is mainly responsible for storage; (everyone who has seen it knows that all the information stored in Fil is garbage information, without any useful information, and the same type of Storj or Blz or Ar all store useful information)

2. At present, the circulation is not large, and most of them are controlled by large computing power providers; (circulation is almost based on the current market value of 8.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the daily increase in computing power in the market is calculated according to 30Pib, and 468750 sectors are packaged every day, according to the current one The demand for sector 0.3Fil is 281,500 Filcoin a day, worth 224wu. ps: I haven’t seen Fil for a long time, so I don’t know the exact data)

3. Fil mining requires an IDC computer room server cluster; (this is actually not necessary, many people do not mine after setting up an IDC computer room, but it does require professional maintenance, which is different from the previous pow mining machines and requires some technology)

4. To participate in Fil mining, you must pledge Fil; (previously ipfs officially made a post-stake, and later changed it to a front-stake. Fil pledge is equal to destruction. After all, it will take 540 days to come back)

5. 25% of the mining output is released every day, and the remaining 75% is released in 180 days; (currently, those who participated in mining on the first day have not been released yet, and they have only released 150 days, and there are 30 days left)

6. Big data centers are being set up all over the country; (According to a news from a big guy who picks his feet, zfs in various places are building big data centers, and then excavating Fil. How do you say this proceeds belong?)

7. The increase in computing power leads to a decrease in the output per T, and whether the currency price can stabilize is something that needs attention; (the first batch of people who entered the market or those who entered the market in January, if Fil is not sold Now they have paid back their capital, and they will pay back their capital every 2 months. Whether they will hoard coins or sell them, and who will pick up the pressure is a question)

Naturally, everyone is looking for profit, and if there is profit, they will do it. It depends on whether they can make money. After all, opportunities are here. Some people choose to buy coins, some choose mining, and some choose Step into the air.

Let’s talk about Fil’s pit here.

Fil's pit is mainly divided into three periods, let's talk about it separately here.

The first period (17-19 years): This period is when ipfs has just started. Since fil has not been launched on the main network, most of the mining machines are of CX nature. Basically, 100% of them can’t dig out anything, and they are just waste Iron sales may not be able to sell for money. Of course, at that time, there were apps that could see the profit from mining when there was no fil.

In 20 years before fil opened the test network, the mining configuration was announced. Many talents found that the machines they bought were actually the wrong ones, and they were completely scrap iron. Many early cx layouters were collectively victimized;

The second period (beginning of the testnet-before the mainnet goes live): The main pit in this period is the price difference. In order to prove their own strength, many mining pools frantically piled up computing power during the testnet period, ranking themselves first, making their machines It is very "expensive", indeed expensive.

There are also many exchanges and institutions to help sell cloud computing power. It is said that the value of cloud computing power is 1w, and the output is 10 yuan a week.

The ranking of the test network is not counted, and the once sensational 1475 (Tianru Technology) seems to be not doing well.

The third period (after the mainnet goes online): a series of operations such as zombie mining machine + fake cloud computing power real plate + stealing customer computing power;

At present, everyone is in the third issue. Many readers have seen that the price of Fil currency has risen recently, and they are planning to buy cloud computing power. Here I want to give you a general knowledge. The pitfall of cloud computing power is to sell it to retail investors at a high price. It takes N For a long time, plus the ownership of the mining machine is not your own but someone else's.

However, in fact, the cost has not been reduced at all. Many people even spent several times the price of the mining machine they bought to sell their computing power. What's more, some people bought cx disks, which were not real mining.

Now there are actually two ways to participate in Fil mining: 1. Buy the mining machine yourself and host it; 2. Buy cloud computing power;

If you have the technology, you can buy it yourself. After all, the cost of operation and maintenance is actually quite high. After all, Fil has a punishment mechanism.

The premise of participating in mining is to understand that mining is not immediate, you need time to change the space, you can’t want to mine when it rises, and you don’t want to mine when it falls. The specific pits are also given in front. you said so.

The current actual cost composition of 1t of computing power: the cost of packaging 1t of computing power is about 6,000 (currently 11.11FIL/1Tib is variable), the server cost + hardware + electricity + network + maintenance is about 1,000, and the actual cost is about 8,000 Belongs to a more reasonable range.

So you can identify it by yourself, and the cost here is also calculated for you, so consider the input cost and output by yourself, and then draw a model yourself. When I had tea with my friends yesterday afternoon, the cost of 1 ton was only about 5,000. It's 8000 today hahaha, it's really the speed of the currency circle.

Be responsible for yourself, and calculate reasonably what you can accept. Professor Suo also knows a lot of people who do this, so he can make a deal for you.

Zhihu: Professor Suo's Super Evolution

|Risk warning

All articles of Professor Suo cannot be used as investment advice and recommendations. Investment is risky, and the risk in the currency circle is even worse. It is recommended to evaluate personal risk tolerance and prepare psychologically before entering the market.