The heavy volume surged and fell under pressure, and there is a possibility of a second callback

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2021-01-13 05:33

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Blockchain secondary market report for the second week of 2021.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the second week of 2021.

Blockchain secondary market report for the second week of 2021

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: heavy volume rushes up and falls under pressure, there is a possibility of a second callback
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 84.58%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 30.58%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.29%, USDT balance increased by 15.95%
USDT premium rate: the premium rate fluctuates widely, and maintains a positive premium at the end of the day
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates upwards, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Futures contracts: the amplitude of the contract basis increases, and short-term premiums are transferred to discounts
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: heavy volume surges and pressure callbacks, there is a possibility of a second callback

As of the statistical time of the report (January 12, 2021), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$1.030 billion, an increase of 27.94% from the average value of last week; The weekly average fell by 7.76%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 5.21%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 4.49%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 4.13%.

This week, the market once again broke through the previous high and then retreated under pressure. Market trading activity rose, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the previous trend and consolidated in the range around 80 billion to 90 billion US dollars. On Wednesday, the market accelerated its rise, breaking through the 100 billion and 110 billion US dollars successively, and the highest hit 111.2 billion US dollars. After 2 days of consolidation at a high level, the price was under pressure again on Monday. The 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation volume was close to US$2.9 billion. The price stabilized and rebounded in late trading, closing at around US$95 billion. The daily average value of the total market capitalization rose by 29.28% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week. The rise in the US dollar and U.S. bond yields severely lowered the price of gold. The price of gold fell slightly, and Bitcoin led the rise.

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through upwards, and the price continued to rise this week, breaking through to above $40,000 and then under pressure. The cumulative total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in a week It was 6,271.920 billion yuan, an increase of 2,873.927 billion yuan or 84.58% from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb 3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 30.58%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 603.90%, an increase of 145.74% or 30.58% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 103.34%, the lowest was 75.29%, and the extreme value difference was 28.05 percentage points, of which XLM rose the most First, it rose 60.42% from last week, an increase of 60.42%.

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1659.79% this week, up 761.63% or 84.80% from last week), DASH (1081.27% this week, up 623.11% or 136.00% from last week) , EOS (924.30% this week, up 345.57% from last week, up 59.71%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (29.80% this week, down 74.48% from last week, down 71.42%), ETH (109.28% this week, down 155.42% from last week, down 58.72%), XRP (195.09% this week, up 70.94% from last week, up 57.13%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH). 4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.29%, USDT balance increased by 15.95%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 1.99947 million BTC, an increase of 0.29% over the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 11.1649 billion USDT, an increase of 15.95% over the same period last week; 20) It was 24.2243 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.57% over the same period last week.

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

5. USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuates in a wide range, maintaining a positive premium at the end of the day. The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of the off-market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the off-market The sentiment of funds entering the market is positive, otherwise it means that the motivation of off-market funds to enter the market is not high, or even funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds on the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

The USDT premium rate fluctuated upwards this week, and remained positive in late trading. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.09% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.80%, a minimum premium of -0.25%, and a closing premium of 0.10%. With the overall surge in the market, Bitcoin hit another historical record, and the USDT premium rate fluctuated widely , Maintaining a positive premium in late trading.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated widely, with a drop of 18.00% in late trading compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 6.39, the highest value was 10.03, the lowest value was 5.24, and the closing value was 5.24; the fear & greed index was 93 points 7 days ago, the highest this week The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 94 points, which is a slight increase from 93 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the market sentiment remains extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: the amplitude of the contract basis increases, and short-term premiums are transferred to discounts. From the perspective of futures contracts, the market volume can continue to expand this week, the amplitude of contract basis increases, and short-term contract premiums are transferred to discounts. , the 24-hour bitcoin liquidation volume was close to $2.9 billion. Ethereum futures trading volume reached $257.06 billion in December, $10.8 billion higher than November and a record high. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.209%, with a premium down by 1.18 percentage points; the average premium for next-week contracts is 0.64%, with a premium down by 1.153 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 4.367%, with a premium down 1.553 percentage points; the average discount of the BitMEX perpetual contract is 0.238%, and the premium has decreased by 0.949 percentage points. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.034%, the latest premium of the next week's contract is 0.386%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract is 3.741%. This week, the forward contract basis spread has weakened, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The premium and discount ratio of futures in the report is calculated based on the BXBT spot data of BitMEX. . For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction; recently, the market has risen sharply, and the price has repeatedly hit record highs. However, in the long run, digital currencies are relatively low in valuation. With the bubble The extrusion of digital currency is worth some configuration.

Figure 17 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summarize the trend of the market: This week, the market once again broke through the previous high and then came back under pressure. The market trading activity is on the rise, and investor sentiment remains extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the previous trend and consolidated in the range around 80 billion to 90 billion US dollars. On Wednesday, the market accelerated its rise, breaking through the 100 billion and 110 billion US dollars successively, and the highest hit 111.2 billion US dollars. After 2 days of consolidation at a high level, the price was under pressure again on Monday. The 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation volume was close to US$2.9 billion. The price stabilized and rebounded in late trading, closing at around US$95 billion. The daily average value of the total market capitalization rose by 29.28% compared with last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week. The rise in the US dollar and U.S. bond yields severely lowered the price of gold. The price of gold fell slightly, and Bitcoin led the rise.

From the perspective of the disk, the price of Bitcoin went up and down this week, showing an inverted U-shaped trend. It once broke through the $40,000 point and stood firm for a short time. It once again refreshed the historical high and attracted more attention from external traffic. The COINBASE system failed, and a large number of buy and pending orders could not be traded. The chain reaction led to a deep correction of the price, which fell back to around US$30,000 for consolidation. In fact, a wave of forced deleveraging was carried out, and then the price rebounded and rose to a range around US$35,000; overall, the current market In the finishing stage after the decline, the price gradually recovered after a rapid correction at the end of the day. After the correction, the market has not yet deteriorated. Grayscale once again resumed the purchase of encrypted trust funds except ETH and XRP. The balance of USDT on the exchange increased by more than 15% this week. The total amount of USDT in circulation has issued a total of 1.5 billion USDT this week, an increase of more than 13%. There is a certain level of support at the bottom; but in the short term, the market sentiment needs to be repaired after this decline, and the top is facing a phased retreat in the stage of profit taking Resistance, if the high level does not break for a long time, there is a possibility of a second callback, you can reduce your holdings on rallies and reduce your positions. At the same time, the current forward contract basis has increased in amplitude. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control leverage, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 84.58%. This week, the cumulative total trading volume of the nine major exchanges was 6,271.920 billion yuan, an increase of 2,873.927 billion yuan or 84.58% from last week. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges that accounted for the trading volume were Binance (38.87%), Huobi (28.61%), OKEX (22.48%), the trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 89.96% of the total trading volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges increased by 0.2% compared with last week; Binance this week Cumulative trading volume increased by 1.1267 trillion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 85.87%. Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 852.354 billion yuan, an increase of 85.59%. OKEx’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 605.121 billion yuan compared with last week. The increase is 83.61%.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 0.79% to 39.885825 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 13.8% to 13.983878 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 3.19% to 5767.461061937 trillion bolivars. Calculated based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 203229.4807VES), the over-the-counter BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 28.37906 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 30.58%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 603.90%, an increase of 145.74% or 30.58% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 103.34%, the lowest was 75.29%, and the extreme value difference was 28.05 percentage points, of which XLM rose the most First, it rose 60.42% from last week.

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.29%, USDT balance increased by 15.95%. This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 1.99947 million BTC, an increase of 0.29% over the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 11.1649 billion USDT, an increase of 15.95% over the same period last week; 20) It was 24.2243 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.57% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated in a wide range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The USDT premium rate fluctuated upwards this week, and remained positive in late trading. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.09% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.80%, a minimum premium of -0.25%, and a closing premium of 0.10%. With the overall surge in the market, Bitcoin hit another historical record, and the USDT premium rate fluctuated widely , maintaining a positive premium in late trading

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated upwards, and the market sentiment was extremely greedy. This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated widely, with a drop of 18.00% in late trading compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 6.39, the highest value was 10.03, the lowest value was 5.24, and the closing value was 5.24; the fear & greed index was 93 points 7 days ago, the highest this week The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 94 points, which is basically the same as the 93 points in the same period last week. With the high volatility of Bitcoin prices, the market sentiment remains extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: The amplitude of the contract basis has increased, and short-term premiums have been transferred to discounts. From the perspective of futures contracts, the market volume can continue to expand this week, the contract basis spread will increase, short-term contract premiums will be transferred to discounts, and prices will be deeply corrected in late trading. The 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation volume is close to 2.9 billion US dollars. Ethereum futures trading volume reached $257.06 billion in December, $10.8 billion higher than November and a record high. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.209%, with a premium down by 1.18 percentage points; the average premium for next-week contracts is 0.64%, with a premium down by 1.153 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 4.367%, with a premium down 1.553 percentage points; the average discount of the BitMEX perpetual contract is 0.238%, and the premium has decreased by 0.949 percentage points. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.034%, the latest premium of the next week's contract is 0.386%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract is 3.741%. This week, the forward contract basis has increased in amplitude, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin Contract Price Fluctuation Disclaimer TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with the digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report. The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness. The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report. The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments. The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

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